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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026

 

By Ashutosh Pati

 

MUMBAI – Ambuja Cements Ltd., one of India's largest cement makers, is bracing for a sharp hit to its bottom line in the December quarter mainly because of lower realisations amid a fall in cement prices during the quarter, according to analysts. However, the company is expected to post a moderate increase in its revenue due to higher volumes and recent acquisitions, in line with other cement companies.

 

The Adani Group cement major is expected to post a consolidated net profit of INR 7.98 billion for the December quarter, marking a fall of over 62% on year and nearly 60% from the trailing quarter, according to the average of estimates from 14 brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 18.81 billion from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 1.31 billion from YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

The company's consolidated revenue for the reporting quarter is expected to rise over 7% on year to INR 99.89 billion, according to the average of the 14 estimates. Sequentially, this implies a rise of nearly 9%. Estimates for the company's revenue range from a high of INR 106.73 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. to a low of INR 91.38 billion by YES Securities.

 

Ambuja Cements' realisations are expected to decline 2-4% sequentially in the December quarter, mirroring weakness in cement prices. Brokerages said prices declined 1-3% sequentially in the December quarter across regions, with the southern and eastern parts of the country being the worst hit. Demand was initially weak due to the festive season and labour shortages, but picked up towards the end of November, which contributed to a moderate rise in volumes.

 

The company's volumes are expected to rise 9-17% on year and 12-15% sequentially in the reporting quarter, with only YES Securities providing a low estimate of 4% on-year growth and 2% sequential growth. Kotak Securities Ltd. sees the company's consolidated volumes at 18.9 million tonnes in the reporting quarter, while Nomura Equity Research sees it at 17.8 million tonnes. YES Securities expects Ambuja Cements to report consolidated volumes of 17.18 million tonnes in the December quarter. The cement major's volumes are also likely to be driven by 'inorganic growth' due to acquisitions, according to analysts.

 

Ambuja Cements is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 17.27 billion in the December quarter, up just about a percent on year and down nearly 2% sequentially, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. has the highest estimate for the company's EBITDA at INR 19.00 billion, while Nomura has the lowest estimate at INR 14.74 billion.

 

Most brokerages expect the company's EBITDA per tonne to fall sequentially in the December quarter. On an annual basis, however, brokerages are divided with some expecting a rise in EBITDA per tonne while others expect a fall. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expects the company's variable cost per tonne to decline around 8% on year and its operating expenditure to decline around 5% on year.

 

"The Board has approved the merger of ACC into Ambuja, a move expected to unlock EBITDA synergies of at least (INR) Rs 90–100/T (tonne) through cost rationalization and operational integration," Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. said. "Management earlier outlined a wider cost-synergy roadmap of around Rs 400/T through FY28, with a stated EBITDA target of approximately Rs 1,500/T. With the incremental benefits from merger-related synergies, consolidated EBITDA has the potential to scale towards Rs 1,600/T over the medium term," the brokerage said.

 

Of the 16 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 14 have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 700. This is around 31% higher than the current market price. One brokerage has a 'hold' recommendation on the stock while another has a 'sell' recommendation.

 

Shares of Ambuja Cements Thursday closed 0.4% higher at INR 536.05 on the National Stock Exchange. The company had reported a net profit of INR 17.66 billion for the September quarter on revenue of INR 91.30 billion. Since reporting its September quarter earnings, shares of the company have fallen over 7%. The company will detail its December quarter earnings Friday.

 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Ambuja Cements from 14 brokerages in descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage firm	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	103.00	18.81	18.81
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd	99.00	16.00	19.00
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	103.96	14.28	18.30
Nomura Equity Research	94.87	8.82	14.74
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	106.73	8.29	18.32
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd	101.00	7.95
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	99.40	7.80	17.70
Axis Securities Ltd	99.70	5.30	17.87
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	100.57	5.10	16.12
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	101.60	4.99	17.73
HDFC Securities Ltd	95.58	4.70	15.95
ICICI Securities Ltd	101.82	4.22	17.81
Kotak Securities Ltd	99.82	4.09	16.34
YES Securities (India) Ltd	91.38	1.31	15.85
Average	99.89	7.98	17.27

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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