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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

By Astha Oriel

MUMBAI – Mining major Vedanta Ltd. is expected to report a sharp year-on-year increase in its consolidated bottom line for the December quarter due to high prices of base metals such as aluminium, zinc, and alumina, according to brokerages tracking the company. The company's top line is expected to grow in double digits year-on-year due to a rise in aluminium and zinc volumes.

The company's net profit for the December quarter is expected at INR 58.53 billion, up 65% on year and more than 51% on quarter, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. The mining major's net profit was INR 35.47 billion in the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate for the reporting quarter's net profit is INR 63.69 billion by ICICI Securities Ltd., whereas the lowest estimate is INR 54.90 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. This is likely to be the first quarter this financial year when the company will report a year-on-year increase in net profit.

The company's net sales for the reporting quarter are expected to be INR 434.80 billion, up more than 11% on year and 9% on quarter, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. The company's revenue from operations was INR 391.15 billion in the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate of top line is INR 451.02 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd., whereas the lowest estimate is INR 417.70 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. This is likely to be the fifth consecutive quarter of a year-on-year increase in net sales.

Systematix Shares and Stocks expects aluminium sales volume to be 620,000 tonnes, up 1% on year. The company's aluminium production was 613,000 tonnes in the year-ago quarter.

For the September quarter of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), the aluminium business contributed 39% to Vedanta's revenue, whereas zinc and lead India businesses, including Hindustan Zinc Ltd., contributed 16%. The copper business contributed 17% to Vedanta's revenue. The silver business, including that of Hindustan Zinc, contributed 4% to the company's revenue.

International aluminium prices have increased 16% on year to $2,833 per tonne, whereas alumina prices have risen nearly 56% on year to $315 per tonne. Copper prices have increased 21% to $11,139 per tonne for the December quarter.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 142.37 billion, up more than 26% on year and nearly 23%, according to the average of brokerages' estimates. The Mumbai-headquartered company's EBITDA was INR 112.84 billion in the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate for EBITDA is INR 149.40 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., whereas the lowest estimate is INR 135.98 billion by ICICI Securities.

ICICI Securities expects the aluminium business EBITDA to be INR 68.33 billion, whereas Kotak Securities Ltd. expects it to be INR 67.58 billion. The aluminium segment's EBITDA was INR 45.40 billion for the year-ago quarter.

Kotak Securities expects the India zinc segment EBITDA to be INR 57.82 billion. It was INR 45.32 billion in the year-ago quarter. For the oil and gas segment, ICICI Securities expects the EBITDA to be INR 8.52 billion, whereas Kotak Securities expects the segment's EBITDA to be INR 11.03 billion. The oil and gas segment's EBITDA was INR 12.01 billion.

Kotak Securities expects the aluminium business EBITDA to improve by more than 49% on year and 32% sequentially due to higher aluminium and lower alumina prices, which will be partially offset by hedged quantities. The EBITDA for the oil and gas business is expected to improve 7.2% sequentially on lower costs. Zinc India segment's EBITDA is likely to increase by more than 28% on year and 30% on quarter due to higher zinc prices, which will be partially offset by hedged quantities, Kotak Securities said.

Vedanta will announce its December quarter earnings Thursday. Analysts will monitor the company's commentary on the timeline for the demerger of Vedanta into Vedanta Aluminium, Talwandi Sabo Power, Vedanta Steel and Iron and Malco Energy. Analysts will also watch for management commentary on the debt position, expansion plans, and timelines to commission new projects.

These new projects include three coal blocks in Odisha to ensure adequate supply of coal for the company – a six million tonnes per annum coal block at Radhikapur, an eight million tonnes per annum coal block at Kuraloi, and a 20 million tonnes per annum coal block at Ghogharpalli. The new projects also include a 160 kilo tonnes per annum roaster at Debari in Rajasthan, a 510 kilo tonnes per annum fertiliser plant at Chanderiya in Rajasthan, and the ramp-up of the aluminium plant of its subsidiary Bharat Aluminium Co. Ltd.

Shares of Vedanta Wednesday closed nearly 5% higher at INR 737 apiece on the National Stock Exchange. The shares of the company have risen nearly 44% since the company reported its September quarter earnings.

Of the six brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, five have a ‘buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 665 per share. This is nearly 11% lower than the current market price. One brokerage has a 'hold' call with an average target price of INR 540 per share.

Hindustan Zinc, a subsidiary of Vedanta, reported a net profit of INR 38.79 billion, up nearly 47% on year for the December quarter. The subsidiary's net revenue for the reporting quarter was INR 109.22 billion, up nearly 28% on year. The consolidated EBITDA for the December quarter was INR 60.87 billion, up 34% on year. The EBITDA margin for the December quarter expanded to 55% from 53% in the year-ago quarter. The subsidiary's zinc output cost excluding royalty was at $940 per tonnes, down 10% on year. In FY25, Hindustan Zinc contributed 22% to Vedanta's consolidated revenue.

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Vedanta Ltd. from six brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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