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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – Dixon Technologies Ltd. is expected to report the slowest growth in its bottom line in 12 quarters and an 11-quarter low growth in its top line for the December quarter, owing to a decline in mobile volumes. Lower sales of mobile phone brands Xiaomi and Ismartu have likely impacted the company's overall sales, while sales of its key brand Motorola are said to have limited upside during the quarter, according to analysts.

The electronics manufacturing services company is expected to report a nearly 21% year-on-year rise in its consolidated net profit to INR 2.06 billion for the December quarter, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. However, the net profit is likely to decline by over 69% from the trailing quarter due to a loss of wallet share with a large client and general weakness in the industry, according to Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

The company's largest client, Motorola, is said to have outsourced domestic volume to New Delhi-based Karbonn Mobiles, according to media reports. Taking into account near-term headwinds, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. has cut its estimate for smartphone volumes, excluding Samsung, by 27% to 32 million in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), by 20% to 46 million in FY27, and by 5% to 56 million in FY28.

Dixon Tech's consolidated revenue for the quarter is projected to rise just 9% on year but fall almost 24% on quarter to INR 113.58 billion, according to the average of estimates. The company's revenue is dragged down mainly due to lower sales of Xiaomi and Ismartu, supply chain constraints, and rising prices of cell phone memory chips. Additionally, the 350 basis points of decline in Xiaomi's market share in 2025 and increased competition from large technology companies such as Apple have also affected Dixon's sales during the quarter, according to brokerages.

The highest estimate for Dixon's bottom line for the quarter is INR 3.37 billion by Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd. and the lowest is INR 1.59 billion by Nuvama Wealth. The estimates for the company's top line for the quarter range from INR 140.67 billion by Emkay Global to INR 104.50 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. 

The growth in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is expected to be in the low- to mid-single digit owing to lower sales and weaker product mix, according to brokerages. The EBITDA margin is seen flat on year at 3.8% in the December quarter, owing to a slightly lower share of the lower-margin mobile business, Kotak Securities said. On the other hand, YES Securities (India) Ltd. expects the EBITDA margin to contract 20 basis points on year due to the negative operating leverage.

The company will detail its December quarter earnings Thursday. Market participants will watch out for management commentary on government approvals for joint ventures with Chinese HKC Corp. (for display manufacturing) and Vivo Mobile India (for smartphone manufacturing) and timelines for starting manufacturing under these ventures.

Even if the joint venture with Vivo does not materialise, Emkay Global believes Dixon Tech can organically scale up volume to 7 million in FY27 and 11 million in FY28, driven by Vivo's global growth ambitions and volume ramp-ups from brands such as Oppo and Realme. Moreover, Dixon's overall volumes are unlikely to be affected by Xiaomi's market share loss amid the addition of new mobile original design manufacturers, Emkay said. Rising volume from Oppo, which has a 25% business share, and a rise in absolute business with Motorola, will also help, the brokerage added.

Analysts will also monitor approvals for clearances under the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme, for which two of the company's five applications have been approved so far. Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. expects the remaining approvals to come through in the first half of the March quarter. Further, comments on the extension of the mobile production-linked incentive will also be monitored.

Shares of Dixon Tech ended 0.9% higher at INR 10,279 on the National Stock Exchange Wednesday. The stock has fallen by over 36% since the company announced its September quarter earnings. The stock is also down 46% from its all-time high of INR 19,148.90, hit on Dec. 17, 2024.

Of the nine research reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 18,189, which is around 77% higher than the closing price Wednesday. Of the remaining two, one has a 'hold' call on the stock with a target price of INR 16,590 and one has a 'reduce' recommendation with a price target of INR 15,556. 

The company manufactures mobile phones, wearables and hearables, and telecommunication and hardware products under several contract manufacturing deals. The company's mobile phones and electronics manufacturing services segment accounted for 62% of total business, according to its latest annual report. It also makes light-emitting diode products, TVs, and home appliances such as washing machines and refrigerators.

The following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Dixon Technologies from 10 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Saji George Titus

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