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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – Tata Motors Ltd. is expected to report a double-digit year-on-year increase in its top line for the December quarter on the back of a double-digit increase in wholesale sales of commercial vehicles, according to analysts. Its net profit for the reporting quarter is expected to fall on year, based on Informist's calculation for the company's year-ago quarter profit, as an undivided Tata Motors had not disclosed segment-level bottom lines prior to its demerger.

 

The company's bottom line for the reporting quarter is estimated at INR 19.63 billion, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. If the projections are met, it would translate to a fall of roughly 11% from the INR 21.95 billion profit reported in the year-ago quarter, as per Informist calculations.

 

Most brokerages polled by Informist did not provide year-ago net profit for Tata Motors' commercial vehicles operations. YES Securities (India) Ltd. expects the company's bottom line to be INR 19.16 billion, up from 14.26 billion in the year-ago quarter.

 

To enable a like-for-like comparison, the year-ago net profit has been calculated from the figures provided last year by the undivided Tata Motors. The net profit for the commercial vehicle business was calculated by deducting its pro rata tax contribution from the commercial vehicle segment's profit before tax. The tax was reduced in proportion to the share of the passenger vehicle business in the total profit before tax. This calculation was required as, under the current disclosure norms, companies are not required to report segment-wise profit after tax.

 

The highest estimate for Tata Motors' December quarter net profit is INR 24.22 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., while the lowest estimate is INR 18.15 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

 

The company's top line for the December quarter is expected to rise 15% on year to INR 212.76 billion, according to the average of the estimates. The revenue estimates for Tata Motors range from a high of INR 226.50 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. to a low of INR 207.99 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. A higher share of heavy commercial vehicles in overall sales is expected to boost the average selling price of the company's commercial vehicles, estimates show.

 

In October, Tata Motors split its passenger vehicle and commercial vehicle operations into two separately listed firms to focus on growth, more efficient capital allocation, and to serve the needs of both the segments independently. Commercial vehicles accounted for 17% of the company's consolidated revenue and contributed 16% to its profit for 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), prior to the demerger. It is India's biggest commercial vehicle manufacturer with a sizeable presence in trucks and buses.

 

Commercial vehicle sales have picked up in recent quarters after multiple quarters of subdued sales growth. This upturn was reflected in despatches of all major commercial vehicle makers, including Tata Motors. The company sold 115,577 commercial vehicles in the December quarter, up 21% on year. Domestic wholesale sales, which form over 90% of its despatches, grew 18% on year, while exports grew 70% on year. Small commercial vehicles and pickups contribute the most to its overall sales mix in terms of volumes, with sales growing 15%. Sales of heavy commercial vehicles improved 23% on year and sales of intermediate, light, and medium vehicles grew 26% on year.

 

"The volume growth was driven (by) post monsoon pent-up demand, pick up from both retail customers and large transporter post GST (goods and services tax) cut," HSBC Global Research said in a note. An increase of heavy commercial vehicles in the overall sales pie and the uptick in exports are expected to increase the average selling price of Tata Motors' commercial vehicles, HSBC said. The company's realisation per commercial vehicle is expected to be INR 1.99 million for the December quarter, 2.2% higher than INR 1.95 million in the year-ago quarter, HSBC said.

 

Tata Motors' earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, is expected to rise roughly 23% on year to INR 28.03 billion for the December quarter, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate for Tata Motors' EBITDA is INR 29.52 billion from Kotak Securities, while the lowest estimate is INR 27.29 billion from Elara Securities. The company's EBITDA margin for the reporting quarter is expected to benefit from operating leverage and lower steel prices, analysts estimated.

 

The company will announce its December quarter results Thursday. The market will track Tata Motors' comments on the impact of the commissioning of the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor on its business and the launch pipeline of trucks going forward.

 

At 1209 IST, shares of Tata Motors traded 3.1% higher on the National Stock Exchange at INR 457.80. The stock has risen a little over 35% since the announcement of its September quarter earnings.

 

Of the seven research reports on the company available with Informist, four have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 447, roughly a percent higher than the current market price. Among the remaining three, two brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation and one has a 'sell' recommendation.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Tata Motors Ltd. based on reports from six brokerage firms in the descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:
 

Brokerages	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	213.17	24.22	27.29
YES Securities (India) Ltd	208.91	19.16	28.36
Kotak Securities Ltd	226.50	19.06	29.52
HDFC Securities Ltd	208.68	18.76	N.A.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	207.99	18.42	27.52
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	211.32	18.15	27.47
Average	212.76	19.63	28.03

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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