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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – Marico Ltd.'s December quarter revenue growth is seen in the high twenties but lower than the trailing quarter even after getting a consumption boost from the cut in the goods and services tax. However, moderation in raw material prices is likely to help the net profit to grow against a mild year-on-year fall reported in the previous quarter. Marico's volume growth is also expected to be in the high-single digit, similar to the September quarter and as projected by the company.

Benign prices of copra and healthy growth in the domestic business are expected to boost the December quarter earnings of Marico. Copra is a key raw material for Marico and its prices have eased around 25–30% from the peak in July. Moreover, moderation in crude oil prices has also likely supported the growth of the company. Marico uses crude oil derivatives as one of its raw materials.

The fast-moving consumer goods company's consolidated net profit is expected to rise nearly 12% on year and 6% on quarter to INR 4.45 billion, according to an average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The highest estimate for consolidated net profit is INR 4.68 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 4.28 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. The growth in the company's net profit is largely driven by growth in its domestic business and fall in raw material prices, according to brokerages.

Marico's consolidated top line is projected to increase 27% on year and almost 2% from the previous quarter to INR 35.46 billion, estimates from 12 brokerages showed. The expectations for revenue growth are in line with the projection of 'high-twenties' growth by the company in its quarterly business update. The highest estimate for consolidated revenue is INR 35.88 billion from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 34.86 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. 

The revenue growth is expected to get a boost from the 31% sales growth in domestic operations, around 7% rise in domestic volume, price hikes in the Parachute segment, and a healthy growth in the value-added hail oil category. The underlying domestic volume is expected to grow 7.0-8.5% in the reporting quarter, similar to the 7% growth recorded in the trailing quarter. This is in line with the quarterly business update by the company ahead of the earnings.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to rise a little over 11% on year in the December quarter to INR 5.92 billion, a sharp improvement from the 7% on-year growth seen in the previous quarter. The highest estimate for consolidated EBITDA is INR 6.19 billion from Prabhudas Lilladher and the lowest estimate is INR 5.76 billion from Nuvama Wealth.

The company said its operating profit growth for the December quarter is likely to touch double digits on a year-on-year basis. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. expects Marico's operating profit margin to contract 240 basis points on year to 16.6%. The company said its operating profit for the domestic business is seen at 16% and of international operations 27%. 

A fall in copra prices is seen helping improve the company's gross margin, which is expected to expand 60–90 bps on quarter to around 43-44%. On a year-on-year basis, the company's gross margin is expected to contract 565–620 bps due to high copra prices compared with the previous year. However, this is lower than the 810 bps on-year contraction reported in the September quarter. Similarly, the EBITDA margin is seen expanding 42-70 bps on quarter but contracting 178-258 bps on year. 

Revenue from Parachute oil sales is expected to rise 44-58% on year, driven by value growth of around 47-60% on year. However, the volumes of this segment are seen declining 2-3% on year. The December quarter is likely to be subdued for the Saffola brand of Marico as the revenue growth in this segment is expected to be flat to mid-single digit. Saffola's volume growth is seen flat on year, similar to the growth in the September quarter. Moreover, value growth in Saffola is also seen flat on year compared with the 19% rise in the previous quarter.

Value-added hail oil--another major segment of Marico--is projected to grow 18-20% on year. Its volume is likely to rise 16% on year in the reporting quarter, according to Emkay Global. Revenue from Marico's foods vertical is expected to rise in low double-digits for the quarter. Most brokerages believe the foods business will witness a modest and benign quarter. 

The Street will monitor the company's outlook for copra prices and the company management's commentary on product pricing and growth outlook for edible oil, value-added hair oil, and foods, according to Systematix Shares and Stocks (India). If the prices of copra fall, pressure on margins will be relaxed, Prabhudas Lilladher said.

Marico is a major Indian consumer goods company focused on beauty, wellness, and health products, and owns brands such as Parachute, Saffola, Livon, and Set Wet in hair care, skincare, health foods such as oats and oils, male grooming, and fabric care. In 2024-25 (Apr-Mar), Marico had recorded a turnover of INR 119.45 billion.  

At 1307 IST, shares of Marico traded slightly higher at INR 744.90 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has risen just 0.8% since the company announced its September quarter earnings on Nov. 14. The stock is, however, around 5% down from its all-time high of INR 780, hit on Jan. 6. The company will announce its December quarter earnings Tuesday.

Of the 15 research reports on the company available with Informist, 13 have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 845, which is over 13% higher than the current market price. The remaining two have a 'hold' call on the stock with a target price of INR 765 each.

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Marico from 12 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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