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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – Dabur India Ltd. is expected to post single-digit on-year growth in net profit and revenue due to a seasonal recovery in demand in the December quarter. The sales growth, which is seen the highest in six quarters, was hit by the transitory impact of trade disruptions from the cuts in the Goods and Services Tax. These disruptions eased after October and sales in winter-led categories provided some support to volumes, brokerages said.

 

Several consumer goods companies, including Dabur, faced lingering trade disruptions in October as distributors and retailers continued to adjust inventories following changes to the GST. However, most analysts said these were transitory, with channel activity and primary sales normalising as the quarter progressed, helped by improving offtake in November and December.

 

Dabur is expected to post a consolidated net profit of INR 5.59 billion for the December quarter, up 7% from a year ago, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The company's consolidated revenue for the reporting quarter is expected to rise 6% on year to INR 35.56 billion, according to the average of the estimates.

 

Most brokerages noted that the colder and extended winter in north India provided support to select seasonal categories. However, Nomura Equity Research does not expect the company to derive any material benefit to volumes and sales from winter loading, even as restocking activity resumed across the trade.

 

Rural demand continued to provide more support in the December quarter due to easing inflation, stable agricultural output, and improved affordability, according to Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. On the other hand, urban demand remained relatively subdued, though it showed early signs of sequential improvement, according to the broking firm.

 

JM Financial Institutional Securities expects the pace of recovery in Dabur's sales to remain relatively slower compared to competitors, even as international business delivers stronger growth than the domestic portfolio. Weaker sales in December could temper overall growth, despite strong momentum in the first two months of the quarter, according to Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. Growth in the company's domestic volume is seen between 1% and 5?spite a low base.

 

The highest estimate for the company's net profit is INR 5.71 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 5.50 billion from Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd. The highest estimate for the company's revenue is INR 36.14 billion from YES Securities and the lowest estimate is INR 35.01 billion from Emkay Global.

 

The home and personal care segment is expected to report a strong performance, led by hair oils, oral care, skin care, and balms. Healthcare growth is seen lagging, weighed down by weakness in the Chyawanprash portfolio.

 

Motilal Oswal said the international portfolio is likely to deliver "high single-digit constant currency growth," driven by markets in West Asia, North Africa, Turkey, Bangladesh, and the US Namaste business. However, Emkay Global believes disruptions in Bangladesh could weigh on performance.

 

Dabur is expected to report a near 10?ll in the consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation at INR 7.32 billion, according to the average of 11 estimates. The company's EBITDA was INR 8.10 billion in the year-ago quarter. The company's margins are expected to remain steady in the December quarter, supported by benign input costs and cost controls.

 

Gross margins are seen at 48–50%, while expectations for EBITDA margin are mixed. While some brokerages expect a marginal expansion in EBITDA margin on lower advertising spends, others see the margin flat or contracting slightly. "We see the negative mix of beverages being offset by the positive mix of healthcare," Emkay Global said.

 

The management's commentary on category-wise demand and recovery in the food and beverages segment will be awaited, Sytematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. said.

 

Compared to the trailing quarter, the company's net profit is expected to rise nearly 24% and its revenue is seen up over 11%. Dabur had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 4.53 billion for the September quarter on revenue of INR 31.91 billion. In the year-ago quarter, the company had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 5.22 billion on revenue of INR 33.55 billion.

 

Dabur India Ltd. is an Indian multinational consumer goods company headquartered in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh. It manufactures Ayurvedic products and fast-moving consumer goods.

 

Dabur India is expected to announce its December quarter results on Thursday. On Friday, shares of Dabur closed at INR 519 on the National Stock Exchange, down 1.2%. The stock is up over 3% since the company reported its results for the September quarter on Oct. 30. However, it is down nearly 23% from its high of INR 672 recorded on Sept. 17, 2024.

 

Of the 12 research recommendations on Dabur available with Informist, four have a "buy" recommendation on the stock, while six have a "hold" recommendation, and two have a "sell" recommendation. The average target price of the "buy" recommendations is INR 569, which is nearly 10% higher than the current market price. The average price of the "hold" calls is INR 528.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Dabur, from 12 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd.	35.72	5.71	7.40
Nomura Equity Research	35.56	5.68	7.39
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	36.14	5.65	7.41
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd.	35.57	5.64	7.36
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	36.06	5.62	7.39
Kotak Securities Ltd	35.59	5.58	7.30
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd.	35.63	5.57	7.48
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	35.01	5.53	7.06
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	35.73	5.53	7.29
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	35.20	5.53	7.22
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd.	35.22	5.53	7.26
Mirae Asset Sharekhan Ltd.	35.32	5.50	-
Average	35.56	5.59	7.32

 

End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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