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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 27, 2026

By Afra Abubacker

NEW DELHI - Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. is expected to remain a sector laggard for the December quarter, with a top line growth of just 1% and contraction of almost 1% in bottom line amid declining sales volumes. The oral care category continues to struggle to fully recover from the transition to changes in goods and services tax and weak underlying demand, according to analysts.

"About 97-98% of Colgate's portfolio witnessed a GST rate cut to 5% from 18%. The management has indicated some lingering impact of trade disruption in the first half of 3Q," Kotak Institutional Equities said. While the premium segment continues to perform better, the brokerage expects volumes to decline 2% year-on-year and price or mix growth of around 2%, resulting in flat topline growth.

The company's standalone revenue is expected to be INR 14.79 billion for the December quarter, up 1% on year, but down nearly 3% on quarter, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. The highest estimate for the company's net sales is INR 15.29 billion by Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd. JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd. has the lowest estimate for revenue at INR 14.59 billion.

The company's net profit is seen at INR 3.21 billion for the December quarter, down 0.5% on year and 2% sequentially, according to estimates. The highest estimate for the company's bottom line is INR 3.45 billion by Nirmal Bang, while the lowest estimate is INR 3.03 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

Nuvama Institutional Equities expects the company's toothpaste sales volume to decline 3% on year in the third quarter as sales dipped in October and early November due to GST-related repricing and packaging changes. Though the company is expected to see a modest recovery in December, brokerages expect Colgate to trail other consumer goods companies such as Nestle, Tata Consumer Products, and Britannia.

Despite benign raw material costs, brokerages estimate Colgate's gross margin to decline marginally on year amid intense competition and the negative impact of an inverted GST structure. Factoring in a weak third quarter and lower margins, JM Financial has cut its FY26-FY28 earnings estimates for Colgate by 2-3%. 

On Friday, shares of Colgate ended 0.6% lower at INR 2,166.30 on the National Stock Exchange. The company's shares have fallen over 5% since it announced its September quarter earnings on Oct. 23. The company will detail its Oct-Dec earnings on Thursday.

Of the 12 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, five have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 2,678. This is nearly 24% higher than the current market price. Four brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation, and three have a 'sell' recommendation on the stock at an average target price of INR 2,423 and INR 2,020, respectively.

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Colgate-Palmolive from 12 brokerages in descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Avishek Dutta

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