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Informist, Monday, Jan. 26, 2026

 

By Astha Oriel

 

MUMBAI – Real estate major Lodha Developers Ltd. is expected to report a smaller year-on-year increase in its consolidated bottom line for the December quarter despite a double-digit increase in revenue as its operating margin is likely to fall, according to brokerages tracking the company. The company's net revenue is likely to rise due to an increase in pre-sales in the December quarter, driven by liquidation of extant inventory, according to Kotak Securities Ltd. The operating margin, however, is expected to decline year-on-year due to the rising cost of construction.

 

The December quarter net profit of the company is expected to be INR 9.88 billion, up nearly 5% on year and more than 25% on quarter, according to the average of seven brokerages' estimates. The company's net profit was INR 9.44 billion in the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate of net profit is INR 17.93 billion from Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., whereas the lowest is INR 5.44 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. This is likely to be the company's slowest year-on-year increase in net profit in seven quarters.

 

The real estate developer's revenue from operations for the December quarter is expected to be INR 46.23 billion, up more than 13% on year and nearly 22% on quarter, according to the average of the brokerages' estimates. The company's net sales were INR 40.83 billion in the year-ago quarter. The highest estimate of net sales is INR 62.97 billion from Elara Securities whereas the lowest is INR 34.78 billion by JM Financial. This is expected to be the ninth successive quarter of the company's net sales rising. 

 

The Mumbai-headquartered company's pre-sales for the December quarter were INR 56.2 billion, up 25% on year. The collections, however, were down 17% on year at INR 35.6 billion. For Apr-Dec, the company's pre-sales were INR 146.4 billion, up 14% on year. The company has given pre-sales guidance of INR 210 billion for the financial year 2025-26. The collections for Apr-Dec were, however, down 1% on year at INR 99.3 billion.

 

"LODHA expects to launch about 15 projects in 2HFY26 (Oct-Mar) with a GDV (gross development value) of (about) INR 140 billion. It is expected to achieve bookings of INR 62 billion in 3QFY26 (Oct-Dec), up 36% YoY (year-on-year)," Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said.

 

The brokerage expects the real-estate developer to clock a volume of 4.3 million square feet, up 44% on year and 22% on quarter. The company added five projects with a gross development value of INR 338 billion in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, the National Capital Region, and Bengaluru in the December quarter.

 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 14.67 billion, down nearly 8% on year but up 12% on quarter, according to the average of brokerages' estimates. The company's EBITDA for the year-ago quarter was INR 15.90 billion. The highest estimate for EBITDA for the December quarter is INR 25.52 billion from Elara Securities; the lowest is INR 9.26 billion by JM Financial.

 

Motilal Oswal has estimated the company's tax liability for the quarter at INR 2.92 billion, whereas Kotak Securities expect the tax liability to be INR 3.65 billion. HDFC Securities Ltd. said developers are adopting cautious launch strategies and emphasising cost optimisation to preserve margins amid rising construction costs.

 

HDFC Securities, Motilal Oswal, and Kotak Securities expect the EBITDA margin of Lodha Developers to be between 28.5% and 32%. The highest estimate for the EBITDA margin is 32% by Kotak Securities whereas the lowest is 28.5% by Motilal Oswal. The company's adjusted EBITDA margin a year ago was 39%. "The listed real estate universe continues to adopt a disciplined approach with higher emphasis on monetising existing projects over new supply," JM Financial said. "Except for the NCR, wherein launches rose sequentially, launches in all other markets were either flat or down marginally QoQ (quarter-on-quarter)." 

 

The company will disclose its December quarter results Wednesday. Shares of the company closed Friday at INR 900.30 apiece on the National Stock Exchange, down nearly 5%. The markets were closed Monday for Republic Day. The shares of Lodha Developers have fallen nearly 25% since the company reported its September quarter earnings.

 

All six brokerage reports on the company available with Informist have a "buy" or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,502. This is 40% higher than the current market price.

 

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates, in INR billion, for Lodha Developers from seven broking firms in descending order of net profit:

 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	62.97	17.93	25.52
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	50.71	10.24	14.45
Kotak Securities Ltd.	46.93	9.95	15.04
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	42.89	9.05	13.11
HDFC Securities Ltd.	43.30	8.39	12.74
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	42.06	8.19	12,59
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	34.78	5.44	9.26
Average	46.23	9.88	14.67

 

End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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