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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

MUMBAI – Debt-ridden telecommunications major Vodafone Idea Ltd. is expected to have continued its loss-making journey in the December quarter as well, impacted by continued loss of subscribers and higher network costs on account of its ongoing network expansion rollout. The telecom company is expected to have lost around 3.1 million subscribers in the first two months of the December quarter, according to data compiled from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. The data for December is yet to be announced by the regulator. With this, the company's total customer base is expected to have fallen to 193.6 million from 196.7 million as of Sept. 30. 

Growth in the company's top line for the reporting quarter is also expected to be affected by the continued subscriber loss, which is seen offsetting the positive impact of higher average revenue per user and an improved subscriber mix, according to brokerages. 

The company's consolidated net loss for the December quarter is expected to be INR 65.63 billion, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. This is higher than the net loss of INR 55.62 billion reported by the company in the previous quarter, but slightly lower than the net loss of INR 66.09 billion reported in the corresponding quarter a year ago.

The company's consolidated revenue for the reporting quarter is expected to rise marginally on quarter to INR 112.40 billion, according to the average of six estimates. On a year-on-year basis, sales for the quarter are expected to rise a little over 1%, the slowest growth in seven quarters.  

Estimates for the company's net loss for the quarter range from a low of INR 59.29 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. to a high of INR 69.87 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. The highest estimate of INR 112.73 billion for the company's net sales is from ICICI Securities Ltd. and the lowest of INR 111.89 billion is from JM Financial.

 
The company's blended average revenue per user for the reporting quarter is expected to rise INR 1-INR 2 on a sequential basis to INR 168–INR 169, estimates from three brokerages showed. Vodafone Idea's blended average revenue per user for the quarter is expected to grow to INR 169 due to upgrades and an improved subscriber mix, JM Financial said. In the September quarter, Vodafone Idea had reported a blended average revenue per user of INR 167 and a customer average revenue per user, excluding machine-to-machine services, of INR 180. 

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the reporting quarter is expected to rise around 1% sequentially to INR 47.20 billion, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. Kotak Securities Ltd. has the highest estimate of 47.65 billion for the company's EBITDA for the quarter, indicating a near 2% sequential rise, supported by its cost-optimisation measures. The lowest estimate of INR 46.93 billion for the company's EBITDA is from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. 

Higher network costs are also expected to limit the growth of the company's EBITDA for the reporting quarter, ICICI Securities said in a note. The company's cash EBITDA for the quarter is expected to remain largely flat on quarter at INR 22.5 billion to INR 22.6 billion, estimates from two brokerages showed. 

The telecommunications company will announce its December quarter earnings on Tuesday. Market participants will watch for the company management's commentary on any relief on its adjusted gross revenue dues and subsequent debt raise, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said in a note. Updates on the progress of its fifth-generation network rollout will also be monitored by the Street, brokerage Nuvama said. 

At 1224 IST, shares of the company were at INR 10.12 on the National Stock Exchange, up slightly. The stock has risen over 7% since it announced its September quarter earnings on Nov. 10. 

In the September quarter, the company's consolidated net loss had narrowed to INR 55.24 billion from an INR 66.08-billion net loss reported in the preceding quarter and a net loss of INR 71.76 billion reported in the corresponding quarter a year ago. Its consolidated revenue for the quarter had risen around 2% both sequentially and on a year-on-year basis to INR 111.95 billion.

Of the five research reports on the company available with Informist, three have a 'hold' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with target prices of INR 10–INR 11. Of the remaining two, one has an 'add' call and the other has a 'sell' call on the stock.

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Vodafone Idea from six brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net loss in INR billion:
 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net loss	EBITDA
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	111.89	69.87	46.97
Kotak Securities Ltd	112.61	67.64	47.65
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	112.19	66.79	47.14
ICICI Securities Ltd	112.73	66.58	47.25
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	112.60	63.58	47.26
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	112.37	59.29	46.93
Average	112.40	65.63	47.20

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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