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Informist, Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026

By Prateem Rohanekar

MUMBAI – Gujarat Gas Ltd. is expected to report a sharp on-year rise in its December quarter net profit despite a fall in revenue as a drop in crude oil prices, softer spot liquefied natural gas prices, and not having Henry Hub linked gas sourced boosted margins. The fall in revenue was primarily due to fall in LNG sales on account of low demand from the ceramic industry, which is a key customer segment for the company. Demand from the ceramic industry was low due to weak exports and competition from alternate fuel, according to brokerages.

The company is expected to report a net profit of INR 2.76 billion for the December quarter, up nearly 25% on year, according to the average of estimates from 10 brokerages. This will represent a nearly 2% sequential decline in net profit. Brokerages also estimate the company will post net sales of INR 37.80 billion for the reporting quarter. This is an on-year decline of over 11% and a sequential decline of above 2%. All figures for net profit and net sales are standalone figures.

The highest estimate of net profit for the company is INR 3.34 billion by Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd while the lowest estimate is INR 2.08 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. The highest estimate of net sales for the company is INR 39.15 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. while the lowest is INR 35.20 billion by Prabhudas Lilladhar Pvt. Ltd.

Brokerages expect a fall in the industrial and commercial demand for piped natural gas translating to lower net sales.

"We expect volumes to fall by 12% YoY as healthy growth in CNG (+12%) is offset by lower PNG industrial volumes (-29%) due to weakness in its Morbi industrial cluster amidst stiff competition from low propane prices during Q3," said Nuvama in its earnings preview report.

Although Henry Hub spot prices for liquefied natural gas were up by 52% on year and 23% sequentially according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.'s earnings preview-report, the company's margins are not expected to be affected due it low exposure to the Henry Hub spot price. Henry Hub spot price serves as a benchmark for international natural gas prices and are the official delivery spot prices for contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of the gas distribution company are likely to be INR 4.15 billion, per the average of brokerage estimates. The highest EBITDA estimate for the company is INR 5.15 billion by Dolat Capital and the lowest is INR 3.59 billion by Nuvama. This is a near 3% on-year rise in EBITDA and an above 13% fall sequentially.

Friday, shares of the company ended at INR 410.20 on the National Stock Exchange, down nearly 1%. The share is up 1.7% since the earnings result last quarter. The company will detail its December quarter earnings on Tuesday.

Out of the eight brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, four have a 'buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 480 per share. This is 17% higher than the current market price. Three brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation with an average target price of INR 434, while one has a 'sell' call on the stock at an average target price of INR 390.

Following are the December quarter earnings estimates for Gujarat Gas from 10 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

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Edited by Ashish Shirke

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