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Informist, Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026

By Pallavi Singhal

NEW DELHI – Regulatory issues in Maharashtra and muted volume growth in the mass segment are expected to drag United Spirits Ltd.'s net profit for the December quarter lower on year, according to analysts. The company's revenue, however, is seen rising on the back of pricing gains and premiumisation.

The decline in net profit despite likely higher revenue is due to margin normalisation after an unusually strong year-ago quarter. The year-ago quarter had benefited from elevated other income and stronger margins, which are not seen repeating this quarter, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. said.

The alcoholic beverages maker is expected to report a standalone net profit of INR 5.10 billion for the December quarter, based on the average of estimates from seven brokerages. This is about 5% lower from the net profit in the year-ago quarter, but up about 2% sequentially. The highest estimate for United Spirits' December quarter net profit is INR 6.23 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd. The lowest estimate is INR 4.56 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

The company's standalone revenue is estimated at INR 36.31 billion, based on the average of seven estimates. This is up about 6% on year and about 15% on quarter, driven largely by pricing gains. For revenue, estimates range from INR 34.32 billion by Emkay to INR 37.40 billion by YES Securities.

Most brokerages expect modest volume growth, with pricing remaining the key revenue driver. Nirmal Bang Equities expects flat volumes in the prestige and above segment and about 1% on-year growth in the mass segment, termed the 'popular' product range. This translates into a 6.5% revenue growth, as excise duty-related issues in Maharashtra continue to weigh on volumes, the brokerage said.

The prestige and above segment is the company's most crucial portfolio. It contributes over 85% of annual net sales value after taxes and regulatory levies and typically accounts for about 84% of annual sales volumes.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects mid-to-single-digit volume growth in both segments on a favourable base. YES Securities, meanwhile, expects overall volumes to rise nearly 6%, led by the prestige and above portfolio. Along with realisation growth of nearly 3%, this is expected to result in around 9% on-year revenue growth.

Maharashtra remains a key drag on volumes and margins, according to Emkay Global Financial Services. The state is a profitability driver for liquor companies as it has a higher share of margin-accretive, premium products than markets such as Andhra Pradesh.

However, import duty changes and the continued push toward Maharashtra-made liquor have weighed on volumes, particularly in the popular and lower-to-mid prestige segments, Emkay said. While growth in Andhra Pradesh continues, it does not fully offset weakness in Maharashtra, according to analysts. This is expected to weigh on United Spirits' margins and profitability for the reporting quarter.

On margins, brokerages are divided. Nirmal Bang expects gross margins to expand about 30 basis points on year, but expects the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation margin to decline about 110 bps due to higher operating expenses.

United Spirits is expected to report an EBITDA of INR 6.38 billion for the December quarter, based on the average of seven estimates. The highest EBITDA estimate is INR 7.22 billion by YES Securities, while the lowest estimate is INR 5.85 billion by Nirmal Bang.

United Spirits is the Indian arm of the world's fourth-largest alcoholic beverage company by market capitalisation, Diageo Plc, and sells brands such as Johnnie Walker, Black Dog, Black & White, VAT 69, and Antiquity across various price segments.

On Friday, shares of United Spirits ended 1% higher at INR 1,348.70 on the National Stock Exchange. The company's shares rose over 6% since the company announced its September quarter earnings on Oct. 30. The company will declare its Oct-Dec earnings on Tuesday.

Of the nine research reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a 'buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,680. This is 24.6% higher than the current market price. One brokerage has a 'hold' recommendation and the other has a 'sell' recommendation on the stock.

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for United Spirits India from seven brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:

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Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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