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Informist, Saturday, Jan. 17, 2026

By Narayana Krishna

HYDERABAD – Market share gains in key products in the US, growth across business segments, and a significantly low base a year ago are expected to lift Biocon Ltd.'s December quarter consolidated net profit multifold, analysts said. The company is also likely to post healthy revenue growth, supported by double-digit growth in its biosimilar business.

The Bengaluru-based biopharmaceuticals company is likely to post a consolidated net profit of around INR 1.9 billion for the December quarter, a multifold increase over a low base profit of a mere INR 70 million, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. The average of analysts' projections for Biocon's latest quarter revenue is INR 45.4 billion, an increase of 19% on year. On a trailing basis, the company's net profit is seen up 92% and revenue is seen up 6%, the estimates show. The company will announce its December quarter earnings on Feb. 12.

The highest estimate for Biocon's December quarter net profit is a little over INR 2 billion from JM Financial Institutional Securities Ltd., while the lowest estimate of nearly INR 1.6 billion is from Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. The highest revenue estimate is INR 46.4 billion by ICICI Securities Ltd., and the lowest is INR 44 billion by JM Financial.

Most brokerages expect Biocon's revenue growth to be driven largely by sustained momentum in its biosimilars business, led by traction in products such as biosimilar Stelara and insulin product Aspart in the US.

JM Financial expects all operating segments of Biocon to grow 11–16% on year, while Kotak Securities expects strong performance in biosimilars and steady contributions from the generics business and research services subsidiary company Syngene.

Kotak Securities forecasts a 23% year-on-year growth in core biosimilars sales to about $315 million, driven by improved traction across key products and the ramp-up of Stelara in the US, along with steady demand from emerging markets. Motilal Oswal also expects biosimilar segment's revenues to rise 22% on year to INR 27.8 billion, helped by new launches and better traction in existing products, including the scale-up of Insulin Aspart in the US.

Kotak Securities expects the generics segment to grow 17% on year, supported by continued benefits from the launch of the diabetic drug Liraglutide in the UK and Europe, while Syngene's revenues are projected to grow 4% on year. Motilal Oswal, however, expects increased competition to cap generics sales growth, while estimating 8% year-on-year growth for Syngene.

Analysts expect Biocon's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation margin to remain stable to slightly higher on a year-on-year basis in the December quarter, supported by operating leverage in the biologics business.

JM Financial estimates a 71-basis-point year-on-year expansion in EBITDA margin to around 20%. Kotak Securities is projecting a 220 bps quarter-on-quarter expansion in EBITDA margin to 21.6%, driven by higher gross margin and operating leverage in the biosimilars business.

Motilal Oswal estimates the EBITDA margin at 19.7%, slightly lower than 20.6% last year, citing near-term cost pressures and competitive intensity. Overall, EBITDA margin estimates for the quarter cluster in the 19.5–21.6% range, with margin performance closely tied to the pace of biosimilars scale-up. The average of estimates from six brokerages pegs Biocon's December quarter EBITDA at nearly INR 9.4 billion.

During the reporting quarter, Biocon undertook a series of strategic moves that could reshape its medium-term growth trajectory. The company moved to fully integrate Biocon Biologics by acquiring minority stakes from investors such as Serum Institute, Tata Capital, Activ Pine, and Viatris through a combination of share swaps and cash consideration, valuing Biocon Biologics at about $5.5 billion. Biocon also entered into an in-licensing agreement with Ajanta Pharma for generic semaglutide, under which it will supply the product for exclusive and semi-exclusive marketing across select markets in Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia.

Analysts will watch management commentary on the above initiatives, including details on the funding structure, execution timeline and strategic benefits, as well as the way forward on capital allocation and growth priorities.

Of the six research reports on the company available with Informist, four have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 464. This is 21% higher than the current market price. Two have a 'sell' rating with an average price target of INR 335. 

The stock is down nearly 2% since the announcement of its September quarter earnings. On Friday, the company's shares ended almost flat at INR 377.65 on the National Stock Exchange.

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Biocon Ltd. based on reports from six brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:

End

US$1 = INR 90.87

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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