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Informist, Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

By Ashutosh Pati

MUMBAI – A surge in prices of metals, especially silver, is expected to drive the earnings of Hindustan Zinc Ltd. in the December quarter. Analysts expect the metals company to post double-digit growth in both its top line and bottom line.

The Vedanta group company is expected to post a net profit of INR 34.77 billion for the December quarter, up over 31% on year, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. Estimates for the company's net profit range from a high of INR 36.87 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. to a low of INR 32.82 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd.

Hindustan Zinc, one of the largest producers of zinc and silver globally, is likely to have earned a revenue of INR 101.46 billion for the reporting quarter, according to the average of the six estimates. The company's revenue is seen rising around 19% on year. JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. has the highest estimate for the company's revenue at INR 103 billion while Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. has the lowest at INR 99.75 billion. Sequentially, the company's bottom line is expected to rise over 32% and revenue is expected to rise 19%.

The price of silver hit multiple record highs during the December quarter in the international as well as domestic markets on robust demand from industrial users and a sustained deficit in global supply. Growing safe-haven demand also pushed up the metal's price significantly. The average price of silver rose over 72% on year and around 38% sequentially in the December quarter while the price of zinc rose around 8% from the trailing quarter.

Silver sales constitute 20% of the company's revenue and account for 40% of its net profit. In the post-earnings conference call with analysts in October, the company had said it would produce more silver in the second half of the financial year 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) to reach its full-year target of 680 tonnes. The company has produced 451 tonnes of silver in Apr-Dec, with 149 tonnes produced in the June quarter, 144 tonnes in the September quarter, and 158 tonnes in the December quarter. This leaves it with 229 tonnes to produce in the final quarter of FY26 to meet the full-year target. The company will need to raise its March quarter production of silver by 45% over the December quarter output to be able to meet the full year production target.

Zinc sales constitute around 63% of the company's revenue, followed by silver, which contributes nearly 20%, and lead with 10%. Higher volumes of these metals during the quarter are also expected to boost the top line.

The company's production of all mined metals in the December quarter rose 4% on year and 7% sequentially to 276,000 tonnes. Saleable metal production rose 4% on year and 9% from the trailing quarter to 270,000 tonnes. Refined zinc production rose 8% on year to 221,000 tonnes in the reporting quarter. Sequentially, it rose 10%. However, production of refined lead fell 11% on year to 49,000 tonnes. The output of saleable silver was 158 tonnes in the December quarter, down 1% on year but up 10% from the September quarter.

Meanwhile, the company's cost of production for zinc, excluding royalty, for the December quarter is likely to increase around 1% sequentially to $1,000 per tonne, according to Nuvama. "HZ (Hindustan Zinc) is set to deliver a strong Q3FY26 (Oct-Dec), supported by higher zinc and silver prices... Silver prices reached record highs, providing a strong offset to any volume volatility," according to YES Securities.

Hindustan Zinc's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is seen rising 19% on year and 20% on quarter to INR 53.79 billion, according to the estimates. All brokerages expect the company's EBITDA to increase due to higher prices of silver and zinc. Estimates for the company's EBITDA range from a high of INR 58.21 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. to a low of INR 44.20 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.

"With both silver and refined metal volumes reported to increase sequentially and costs remaining largely stable, margins are likely to expand meaningfully on improved realizations and operating leverage," YES Securities said. The brokerage expects the company's EBITDA margin to rise to 54.1% in the reporting quarter from 51.9% in the trailing quarter, driven by stronger sequential volumes and higher zinc and silver prices.

Friday, shares of Hindustan Zinc closed 2.5% lower at INR 637.75 on the National Stock Exchange. Since the company reported its September quarter earnings on Oct. 17, the stock has risen over 28%. The company had reported a net profit of INR 26.32 billion for the September quarter on a revenue of INR 85.25 billion. It will detail its December quarter earnings Monday.

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates, in INR million, for Hindustan Zinc from six brokerages in descending order by estimate of net profit:

End

US$1 = INR 90.78

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Rajeev Pai

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