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Informist, Friday, Jan. 16, 2026

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD – Reliance Industries Ltd. is expected to report mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in net profit and revenue for the December quarter, driven by strong performance of its telecommunications and oil-to-chemicals segments and helped by modest growth in the retail segment. The company's upstream oil business is expected to again stay weak, similar to the September quarter, according to analysts. They expect the operating profit of the company's main oil-to-chemicals segment to report sizeable growth on account of higher refining margins. Many analysts expect the telecommunications segment to earn an operating profit higher even than that of the core oil-to-chemicals segment, led by net addition in subscribers and a jump in average revenue per user.

 

Reliance Industries is expected to report an over 6% rise in its consolidated net profit at nearly INR 197 billion, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The brokerages expect the private sector oil-to-chemicals-to-telecom behemoth's top line at INR 2.5 trillion for the December quarter, up over 5% on year. In the same quarter a year ago, the company's net profit was INR 185 billion and revenue was INR 2.4 trillion. Both net profit and revenue for the December quarter last year were up 7% year-on-year.

 

The estimates for net profit vary widely, with projections ranging from a low of nearly INR 183 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. to a high of over INR 258 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd. The estimates for the company's revenue vary between a low of over INR 2.3 trillion by Nuvama Wealth Management and a high of nearly INR 2.7 trillion by YES Securities. 

 

SEGMENT-WISE PERFORMANCE

The oil-to-chemicals business, which accounted for just over 62% of Reliance Industries' top line for the September quarter, is likely to report robust growth in EBITDA for the December quarter. Analysts point out higher gross refining margins and jump in petrol and diesel cracks as the key driver for EBITDA growth. Nuvama Institutional Equities expects the segment's EBITDA to grow over 13% on year and 9% on a trailing basis, primarily driven by a 21% on-year increase in the benchmark Singapore gross refining margin and nearly double on-year rise in diesel crack spread.

 

Analysts expect this rise in GRMs and crack spread to offset any expected fall in margins of the petrochemicals business of the company. The Singapore gross refining margin acts as a proxy for the profitability of refiners in the Asia-Pacific region. The petrol or diesel crack spread is the difference between the price of petrol or diesel and the price of crude oil. Reliance Industries generally has higher GRMs compared to benchmark Singapore GRM. For the December quarter, most analysts see the GRM for Reliance Industries at over $13 per barrel. In the December quarter last year, the segment had reported an EBITDA of INR 144 billion. For the September quarter, it was a little over INR 150 billion.

 

The retail segment of Reliance Industries is its second-largest business vertical. Reliance Retail Ventures Ltd. had contributed about 35% to the company's revenue for the September quarter. A sizeable section of analysts expect the retail segment's EBITDA to show a relatively modest growth of 3-4% on year to INR 68 billion. They attribute this to a split festival season between September and December quarters compared to the December quarter last year. The positive impact of the cut in the goods and services tax also took time to kick in and saw a drop in product prices. The EBITDA of Reliance Industries' retail segment for the September quarter as well as the December quarter year ago was over INR 68 billion.

 

Reliance Industries is the market leader in telecommunications through Reliance Jio Infocomm. This business accounted for about 15% of the company's consolidated revenue in the September quarter. This segment's EBITDA is expected to grow 14-17% on year and near 3% on quarter, according to analysts. For the December quarter last year, the segment's EBITDA was at nearly INR 166 billion. Analysts see this sequential growth driven primarily by a modest increase in average revenue per user to INR 212.4 in the December quarter from INR 212 in the September quarter and INR 203.3 a year ago. The company could also benefit from a strong increase in end-of-period subscriber base, which is the final net count of subscribers at the close of the reporting period. Published data shows that Reliance Industries added about 8.4 million new subscribers in December quarter.

 

The Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate will announce its December quarter results Friday. The company's shares have risen nearly 3% since it announced its September quarter results on Oct. 17. The benchmark Nifty 50 has weakened by about 0.2% in the same period.

 

The company is expected to report consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, excluding other income, of nearly INR 481 billion, almost same as last year. It is expected to be lower than the INR 504 billion it had reported for the September quarter. The EBITDA projection of INR 501 billion by YES Securities is the highest. The forecast of INR 471 billion by Systematix Shares and Stocks is the lowest.

 

All 12 research reports on the company available with Informist have a "buy" rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 1,693 per share. This is over 15% higher than the current market price. Shares of the company traded at INR 1,468.70 at 1016 IST on the National Stock Exchange, up 0.7% from the previous close.

 

Analysts keenly await clarity on growth in retail store additions and any pricing action in telecom. Chairman Mukesh Ambani had recently announced a capex of INR 7 trillion over the next five years in new energy business. Analysts are also keen to know the details of this investment.

 

The following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Reliance Industries, in INR million, from 11 brokerages, in descending order of net profit:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
YES Securities (India) Ltd.	2,668,405	258,424	500,639
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	2,559,495	211,012	493,409
Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.	2,389,348	195,048	478,569
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.	2,527,500	193,100	477,600
ICICI Securities Ltd.	2,427,100	191,700	479,900
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	2,559,000	188,000	479,000
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	2,560,536	186,448	480,177
J.M.Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	2,561,538	186,050	471,680
Kotak Securities Ltd.	2,655,230	185,969	478,673
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	2,312,374	184,641	476,818
Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd.	2,514,407	182,565	470,875
Average	2,521,357.55	196,632.45	480,667.27

 

End

US$1 = INR 90.44

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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