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Informist, Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026

By Pallavi Singhal

NEW DELHI – Dalmia Bharat Ltd.'s consolidated bottom line for the December quarter is expected to surge almost three times from the year-ago quarter due to a low base, according to analysts. The net profit had taken a hit in the year-ago quarter on weak demand and low cement prices. The cement maker's top line for the reporting quarter is seen rising 7-9% on year, helped by higher volumes and better pricing in some regions.

The company is expected to post a consolidated net profit of INR 1.69 billion for the December quarter, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. This represents an over 176% rise from the year-ago quarter. However, on a sequential basis, this implies a decline of over 28% due to lower margins.

The company's consolidated net sales for the reporting quarter are estimated at INR 34.54 billion, up nearly 9% on year on higher volumes but largely flat sequentially due to weaker realisations.

The highest estimate for Dalmia Bharat's December quarter net profit is INR 2.05 billion by Kotak Securities Ltd. and the lowest is INR 1.43 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. The estimates vary largely due to differing assumptions on the extent of pricing pressure and the benefit of operating leverage seen during the quarter under review. For revenue, estimates range from a low of INR 33.86 billion by Emkay Global to a high of INR 35.15 billion by YES Securities (India) Ltd., largely driven by variations in volume growth assumptions.

Brokerages expect the company's cement volumes to rise 7–9% on year for the December quarter. However, cement realisations are estimated to remain flat on year and fall about 3–4% on quarter. 

The expected on-year growth in volumes reflects a pickup in cement demand towards the latter part of the quarter after a slow start due to festival-related disruptions, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services and Emkay Global Financial Services. However, pricing remained under pressure across regions amid intense competition, with Emkay flagging weak trade demand and aggressive discounting in key markets, particularly in the south and east. As a result, companies with higher exposure to these regions, including Dalmia Bharat, are expected to see a sharper sequential decline in realisations, diluting the margin benefit from higher volumes, Emkay said.

Dalmia Bharat's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the December quarter are estimated at INR 6.18 billion, based on the average of 10 estimates. The highest EBITDA estimate is INR 6.56 billion by Kotak Securities and the lowest is INR 5.77 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services.

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd expects the company's EBITDA per tonne--a key profitability metric for cement makers--to rise to INR 848 in the December quarter from INR 767 in the year-ago quarter, but fall sharply from INR 1,009 in the September quarter. While this marks an improvement on year on a low base, Emkay Research data shows that Dalmia Bharat's margin remains below the sector's weighted average of about INR 937 per tonne and trails peers such as Shree Cement and UltraTech Cement. The sequential decline also places the company among those facing sharper margin compression this quarter, showing its higher exposure to regions where pricing pressure has been more intense.

In the December quarter, retail cement prices fell INR 25–30 per bag in south and east India and were down INR 15-20 a bag in north and west India, according to Emkay Global Financial Services. Given Dalmia Bharat's higher exposure to the south and east, the company is expected to see a steeper sequential decline in realisations than peers that have a greater presence in north and central India, the brokerage said.

On the cost front, brokerages expect variable cost per tonne to remain broadly flat on year, while overall operating expenditure is estimated to decline about 2% on year, aided by better capacity utilisation and lower freight and other expenses. This is expected to partially offset the impact of weaker pricing, according to brokerages.

Dalmia Bharat is among India's leading cement producers with a total production capacity of 49.5 million tonnes per annum. This accounts for over 7% of the country's total cement installed capacity of 700 million tonnes per annum. Dalmia has a strong presence in the south and east--regions that saw the sharpest price corrections during the quarter. 

Dalmia Bharat will announce its December quarter earnings on Wednesday.

Wednesday, shares of Dalmia Bharat ended at INR 2,177.30 on the National Stock Exchange, up 3.4% from its previous close. The stock is down 3% since the company reported its results for the September quarter on Oct. 17.

Of the 19 brokerage reports on Dalmia Bharat available with Informist, 14 have a ‘buy' recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 2,384, two have a 'hold' recommendation while three have a 'sell' recommendation.

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Dalmia Bharat from 11 brokerage firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit, in INR million:

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Edited by Vandana Hingorani

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