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Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

NEW DELHI – Strong demand for automobiles during the festival season and full pass-through of the cut in the goods and services tax is expected to drive the profit growth of automobile and ancillary companies for the December quarter. Excluding Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd., automobile companies in the Nifty 200 are set to post their strongest year-on-year bottom-line growth in four quarters. Including Tata Motors PV, their profit is expected to fall for a fifth straight quarter, brokerage estimates show. The combined revenue of these 15 Nifty 200 auto companies is estimated to reach a four-quarter high, driven by higher sales of four- and two-wheelers at lower prices, spurred by the GST cut and manufacturer discounts.

 

The combined bottom line of these 15 Nifty 200 automobile and ancillary companies is expected to fall 12% year on year but grow 18% quarter on quarter in the December quarter, adjusted for one-time gains and losses, according to the average of estimates from 17 brokerages. The year-on-year decline is slower than the 18?ll in the September quarter, but much higher than the 1.5?cline in the year ago quarter. The bottom-line growth of the 15 automobile companies is likely to trail the Nifty 200 group's profit growth, which is expected to rise 9% on year in the reporting quarter.

 

Excluding Tata Motors PV, the cumulative bottom line of the 14 automobile companies is expected to grow 30% on year, potentially the strongest growth since the June quarter of 2024. None of the 14 companies is expected to report a profit decline in the reporting quarter, compared with five that reported a fall in profit in the year-ago quarter and four in the September quarter.

 

Tata Motors PV is expected to report a net loss of over INR 25 billion, compared with a net profit of INR 43.67 billion in the year-ago quarter. Tata Motors PV is the only Nifty 200 auto company expected to report a loss for the latest quarter.

 

Tata Motors PV carries significant weight among these 15 companies, accounting for about a quarter of their combined revenue. The aggregate top line of the 15 automobile firms in the Nifty 200 index is expected to rise 6.2% on year and 6.6% on quarter in Oct-Dec.

 

Automobile companies' revenues are expected to benefit from strong volume growth across segments, healthy export traction, and higher average selling prices, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities said in a note. "Record domestic volumes and improving retail momentum underscore renewed consumer confidence," the brokerage said.

 

To enable a like-for-like comparison, the net profit and revenue of Tata Motors PV for the year-ago quarter have been calculated from the figures provided by the undivided Tata Motors. The net profit for the PV business was calculated by deducting its pro rata tax contribution from the PV segment profit before tax. The tax was reduced in proportion to the share of the PV business in total profit before tax. This calculation was required as, under the current disclosure norms, companies are not required to report segment profit after tax.

 

All the Nifty 200 automobile and ancillary companies are expected to report a year-on-year growth in their top line, except Tata Motors PV. In comparison, two companies reported a revenue decline in the year-ago quarter and three in the September quarter.

 

Expectations of a demand uptick translated into the wholesale figures for the December quarter: overall automobile sales grew 19% on year, two-wheeler despatches grew 18% on year, passenger vehicle sales rose 19% on year, three-wheeler sales grew 30% on year, and commercial vehicle sales grew 21% on year.

 

Companies ramped up production to meet higher demand. Automobile production in the December quarter grew 16% on year to 8.84 million units. The increase in production is expected to boost the revenue growth of automobile ancillary companies, Kotak Securities said in a report. Strength in the domestic market is expected to offset the demand lull in lucrative overseas markets like the European Union and the US.

 

Despite the GST cut, automobile companies offered significant discounts across multiple models, especially on entry-level vehicles, during the festival period to clear out inventory. "While elevated discounting, higher raw material costs, and increased advertising spends may pressure EBITDA margins, the impact should be offset by an improved product mix, higher-value models, stronger export contributions, and the positive impact of USD appreciation," Nirmal Bang said. Automobile companies with significant exposure to overseas markets, such as TVS Motor Co. Ltd. and Bajaj Auto Ltd., are expected to gain from the rapid depreciation of the rupee against the dollar.

 

OUTLIERS

Tata Motors PV is expected to be the worst performer among the 15 automobile companies in the Nifty 200. While the company's despatches in India grew 22% on year to 171,000 units, sales of Jaguar Land Rover vehicles fell 12% on year to 91,900 units. Tata Motors PV earned nearly 80% of its revenue in the September quarter from its JLR business. Production at JLR's UK unit was severely impacted following a major cyber-attack in September, which will likely weigh on the company's revenue and profit growth in the December quarter as well.

 

Passenger vehicle makers such as Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., and two-wheeler companies, including Bajaj Auto Ltd., Hero MotoCorp Ltd., and TVS Motor Co. Ltd., are expected to be among the top performers among the 15 automobile companies in the Nifty 200.

 

Maruti Suzuki, India's biggest passenger vehicle maker, is expected to register a strong performance during the reporting quarter as its despatches grew 18% on year to 656,000 units in the December quarter. The Victoris maker's net profit is expected to grow 32% on year to INR 46.70 billion, according to brokerage estimates. If the estimates are realised, Maruti Suzuki's profit growth would outpace that of the Nifty 200 index, even when Tata Motors PV is excluded from calculations.

 

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., India's top sport utility vehicle maker, is projected to report a profit of INR 40.54 billion in the December quarter, representing 37% year-on-year growth. M&M, which saw its sales grow 23% on year to 300,000 units in the quarter, further cemented its lead in the SUV market with its market share rising to nearly 60% in the December quarter. Analysts expect the performance of the company's farm segment to improve, which is expected to boost the company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation margin.

 

Despatches of commercial vehicles improved sharply in the December quarter after multiple quarters of poor performance. Ashok Leyland, with a 65% market share in the medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicle segment, is expected to outperform its peers in the reporting quarter. Its net profit is expected to be INR 10.67 billion, according to brokerage estimates, representing a 40% year-on-year increase.

 

Chennai-based two-wheeler maker TVS Motor's bottom line is projected at INR 10.25 billion for the December quarter, according to analyst estimates. This would translate to a year-on-year growth of 66%, much faster than the projection for the Nifty 200 index. The company's sales for the reporting quarter grew 27% on year to 1.55 million units, driven by robust growth in both domestic and overseas markets. "The growth (in financials) is supported by strong domestic and export volumes, better model mix, and USD appreciation," Nirmal Bang said.

 

The following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for 15 automobile and ancillary companies, which are part of the Nifty 200, from 17 brokerages, in INR million:

Company name	Sales	PAT	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %	EBITDA, INR million	Result date	Number of estimates available
Ashok Leyland	113,435	10,671	19.67	40.08	18.31	31.57	14,417	--	11
Bajaj Auto	154,056	26,340	20.29	24.91	3.24	6.22	31,622	Jan. 30	13
Bharat Forge	25,642	3,391	22.34	(2.28)	31.71	6.68	6,301	--	4
Bosch	50,239	5,824	12.50	15.26	4.78	5.09	6,757	Feb. 6	2
Eicher Motors +	60,430	13,954	21.51	19.21	(2.08)	1.89	14,959	--	13
Exide Industries	43,087	2,841	11.95	15.94	3.12	28.68	4,802	Jan. 30	6
Hero MotoCorp	121,968	14,490	19.45	20.46	0.58	4.03	18,151	--	11
Hyundai Motor India +	178,858	13,989	7.44	20.52	2.43	(11.03)	22,814	--	9
M&M	393,205	40,543	26.99	36.77	12.09	(10.31)	57,461	Feb. 11	11
Maruti Suzuki	509,853	46,699	32.46	32.48	21.10	41.81	60,928	--	12
MRF	76,334	6,226	10.90	102.98	5.29	21.69	11,657	--	3
Samvardhana Motherson International +	310,062	9,773	12.07	11.23	2.76	13.23	27,492	--	9
Sona Blw Precision Forgings +	11,230	1,718	29.39	9.48	(1.79)	(1.53)	2,762	Jan. 23	8
Tata Motors PV +	718,076	(27,842)	(23.30)	N.A.	(0.75)	N.A.	16,683	--	7
TVS Motor Co	122,947	10,249	35.15	65.72	3.27	13.12	15,868	Jan. 28	13
Total	2,889,423	178,865	6.18	(11.97)	6.55	18.07

 

Notes:

+ Consolidated Figure

Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year

Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter

N.A.: Not Available

 

Estimates from:

Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, HSBC Global Research, ICICI Securities Ltd, JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd, Kotak Securities Ltd, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd, Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd, SMIFS Ltd and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

End

 

Data compiled by Shivaji Jagtap

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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