More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2026

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD – Companies in the energy sector that are a part of the Nifty 200 are expected to report steady improvement in their earnings for the December quarter. The performance is likely to be supported by strong profitability of oil marketing companies and select power utilities, even as revenue growth is seen muted due to lower crude-linked realisations and softer upstream output. The sector's earnings performance is expected to hinge largely on refiners and fuel retailers, which are seen offsetting weakness in upstream oil and gas producers.

 

The aggregate net profit of the 20 energy sector companies that are part of the Nifty 200 is expected to rise nearly 17% on year in the December quarter, even as aggregate revenue is seen almost flat. On a trailing-quarter basis, the aggregate net profit of these companies is expected to rise over 3% and revenue nearly 3%, according to the average of estimates from 20 brokerages. In the year-ago quarter, these companies had seen their aggregate net profit fall nearly 4% on year and revenue grow less than 1% year-on-year. For the September quarter, the aggregate on-year net profit growth was 34% and revenue growth was nearly 4%.

 

The divergence between profit and revenue growth for these companies is expected due to variance in the performance of upstream and downstream energy companies during the quarter. Downstream oil companies are expected to see better growth owing to improved marketing margins, lower raw material costs, and better cost controls. Upstream companies, on the other hand, are expected to see low crude oil prices and gas realisations weigh on their top line. Companies such as Oil & Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. and Oil India Ltd. are expected to report year-on-year declines in both revenue and net profit. As for the power sector earnings, the country's biggest coal supplier – Coal India Ltd. – is expected to negate the entire revenue growth that the other power producing companies would see in the December quarter.

 

Of the 20 Nifty 200 energy companies, 13 are expected to report an increase in net profit for the December quarter, while seven are seen reporting a decline. The revenue outlook remains somewhat subdued, with 12 companies expected to post an increase, while six are likely to report a fall during the quarter. Oil and gas companies in the Nifty 200 are expected to record 28% on-year growth in net profit, even as their aggregate revenue is expected to remain flat. These companies had seen their aggregate net profit rise over 26% on year and revenue grow nearly 6% on year during September quarter. As for the 10 power-producing and coal supply companies in Nifty 200, these are expected to see a 4% on-year fall in net profit, even as their revenue is expected to rise 4% on year for the December quarter. These power companies had seen an over 3?ll in net profit and an over 6% rise in revenue for the September quarter.

 

Among oil marketing companies, Indian Oil Corp. is expected to report the strongest year-on-year growth in net profit, more than four-fold from the year-ago quarter, supported by strong refining margins and stable fuel marketing margins. The oil major is expected to see adventitious losses of $2 per barrel in refining and $1 per barrel for marketing during the December quarter, Kotak Institutional Equities said in its report. Adventitious loss is referred to a notional loss owing to change in price of crude oil or refined products between the time inventory is purchased and sold. This may also impact Indian Oil Corp.'s year-on-year revenue growth in the December quarter. Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. are seen reporting year-on-year net profit growth of nearly 48% and 47%, respectively. The revenues of these two state-owned companies are expected to see modest softening due to stable fuel prices. The two state-owned oil marketing companies were star performers with triple-digit net profit growth in the September quarter.

 

"Oil marketing companies' earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation are expected to remain strong, rising 1–3% quarter-on-quarter despite a high base, driven by strong diesel crack-led gross refining margins, INR 50 billion cash compensation for liquefied petroleum gas, and moderation in LPG under-recoveries," J.M. Financial Institutional Securities Ltd. said in a report. It added that this would be partly offset by slightly lower auto-fuel gross marketing margins and higher inventory losses. Motor spirit and high-speed diesel marketing margins declined 3% and 8%, respectively, on a sequential basis during the December quarter. Singapore gross refining margins averaged $7.5 per barrel in the December quarter, compared with $3.8 per barrel in the September quarter, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a note.

 

Reliance Industries Ltd., the country's largest private sector energy player with businesses spanning refining, petrochemicals, and gas production, is expected to report a moderate year-on-year rise of over 6% in net profit, supported by stable refining margins, even as revenue is seen rising just over 5%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, its revenue is expected to decline marginally, reflecting softer product prices. J.M. Financial expects the company's December quarter EBITDA to rise 2.8% sequentially, aided by strong growth in oil-to-chemicals EBITDA and healthy digital EBITDA growth, while retail EBITDA is expected to remain muted. Reliance Industries had reported a nearly 10% rise in its net profit and revenue for the September quarter.

 

In the upstream segment, ONGC and Oil India are expected to report year-on-year declines of over 13% and nearly 28%, respectively, in net profit, dragged down by lower crude oil prices and regulated gas pricing. Brent crude prices fell $5.4 per barrel on a quarter-on-quarter basis to $63.6 per barrel, primarily due to global oversupply as output increases by oil-producing and exporting countries outpaced weak demand growth, exacerbated by US-China trade tensions and concerns about an economic slowdown.

 

Among natural gas companies, GAIL India Ltd. is expected to report a nearly 9% year-on-year decline in revenue as transmission volumes are seen remaining soft due to lower demand. GAIL is the country's largest natural gas transmission company with a pipeline network of over 16,000 km. Petronet LNG Ltd., India's largest liquefied natural gas player with an LNG terminal capacity of 22.5 million tonnes per annum at Dahej and Kochi, is expected to see an over 7% year-on-year decline in revenue and a near 1?ll in net profit. Spot LNG prices fell 22% on year to $10.9 per million British thermal units, though prices remained elevated relative to demand. Total LNG volumes are expected to decline 1% on year, Motilal Oswal said. The natural gas transmission and distribution segment had struggled in the September quarter owing to regulatory pricing pressures, domestic gas allocation challenges, and volatile international LNG prices.

 

In the power segment, electricity demand during the December quarter remained largely flat, although demand picked up in December to 7% on year, compared with year-on-year declines in October and November. NTPC Ltd. is expected to report modest year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, supported by higher generation and capacity additions. Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd. is seen reporting steady earnings growth on the back of asset capitalisation and regulated returns. Among private players, Adani Energy Solutions Ltd. and JSW Energy Ltd. are expected to report strong year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by capacity addition and commissioning of transmission projects.

 

An over 4?ll in dispatches at 186 million tonnes, a 2?ll in contracted realisations, and a 10% drop in spot coal realisations would hit the earnings of Coal India in the December quarter. Coal India is expected to report a year-on-year decline of over 21% in net profit amid lower volumes and subdued e-auction realisations, even as profit is seen rising sharply by over 53% on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

 

Overall, while revenue growth for the energy sector is expected to remain subdued in the December quarter, strong profitability of oil marketing companies and stable earnings of power utilities are likely to lead to a healthy rise in aggregate net profit.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates from 20 brokerage firms for 20 companies of the basic industries sector that are a part of the Nifty 200 index in INR million:

 

Company	Sales	PAT	Sales Y-o-Y change %	PAT Y-o-Y change %	Sales Q-o-Q change %	PAT Q-o-Q change %
BPCL	10,80,287	68,820	-4.51	48.03	2.97	6.82
GAIL	3,18,526	19,046	-8.83	33.43	-9.01	-14.10
Hindustan Petroleum	10,46,714	44,404	-5.28	46.89	3.86	15.93
Indian Oil Corp	19,44,552	92,121	0.29	319.91	8.71	21.05
Indraprastha Gas	40,757	3,655	8.42	27.87	1.30	-1.89
Oil India	51,471	8,845	-1.77	-27.61	-5.67	-15.28
ONGC	3,14,869	71,462	-6.61	-13.27	-4.67	-27.43
Petronet LNG	1,13,412	8,618	-7.24	-0.60	3.02	6.95
Reliance Ind +	25,21,358	1,96,632	5.06	6.06	-0.98	8.25
Adani Energy Solutions +	80,308	9,235	37.74	64.39	21.76	72.95
Coal India +	3,16,544	66,834	-14.12	-21.42	4.86	53.49
JSW Energy +	47,691	2,698	95.54	60.78	-7.89	-61.71
NHPC	21,625	4,243	9.75	55.06	-20.85	-54.16
NTPC	4,25,965	48,754	2.97	3.48	8.76	4.77
NTPC Green Energy +	6,279	957	24.32	45.86	2.55	9.26
Power Grid	1,12,082	39,443	10.74	1.29	12.09	10.96
SJVN	7,618	1,538	21.88	10.45	-19.13	-58.69
Suzlon Energy +	47,678	5,306	60.27	37.12	23.17	-58.53
Tata Power +	1,62,236	10,223	5.41	-0.82	4.37	11.18
Torrent Power +	66,619	5,401	2.50	13.55	-15.42	-25.37
Total	87,26,589	7,08,233	0.08	16.75	2.61	3.47

 

Notes:
+ Consolidated Figure
* Net interest Income
Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year
# Net premium income
Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter
N.A.: Not Available
 
Estimates from: Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd., Antique Stock Broking Ltd., Centrum Broking Ltd., Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd., Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., HDFC Securities Ltd., HSBC Global Research, ICICI Securities Ltd., IIFL Capital Services Ltd., JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd., Kotak Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd., Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., Sharekhan Ltd., Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

End

 

Compiled by Shivaji Jagatap

Edited by Avishek Dutta

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.