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Informist, Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2026

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD - Companies in the basic industries sector that are part of the Nifty 200 are likely to see an improvement in their combined year-on-year earnings and revenue growth in the December quarter compared with the trailing quarter, on the back of better volumes, stable prices, and lower or benign costs. The sector's performance is expected to largely hinge on large companies in sub-sectors such as metals and capital goods, which are seen reporting strong bottom-line growth in Oct-Dec.

The aggregate net profit of 38 companies from the basic industries sector that are part of the Nifty 200 is expected to rise nearly 22% on year in the December quarter, while their aggregate year-on-year revenue growth is expected to be over 12%, according to an average of estimates from 20 brokerages. Growth in net profit is seen lower than the nearly 39% on-year net profit growth these companies had reported in the year-ago quarter.

 

On a trailing basis, the aggregate net profit and revenue growth of these companies is expected to be nearly 1% and a little over 4%, respectively. This is sharply lower than the sequential net profit growth of 26% and revenue growth of over 12% these companies had reported for Jul-Sept.

 

The performance of the basic industries sector is expected to be impacted by a weak performance of two of the leading cement players in the market – ACC Ltd. and Ambuja Cements Ltd. – which are expected to see a 53% and 61% on-year fall in their net profits, respectively, in Oct-Dec despite a modest 6-7% rise in their revenues. Together, the two companies have a combined capacity of nearly 106 million tonnes per annum, accounting for about a quarter of the country's total cement-making capacity.

 

The basic industries sector comprises companies in the capital goods, metals, cement, and real estate sub-sectors. While most of these have significant exposure to the domestic market and economy, select players also have a notable share of their revenues from exports and international operations. The constant push and pull of macroeconomic conditions in India and across the world has had a mixed impact on earnings performance of companies in the sector. The December quarter is not expected to be any different.

 

Of the 38 companies in the sector, 30 are expected to report an increase in net profit for the December quarter and eight are likely to see a decline. The scenario is expected to be better for the top-line growth, with 36 of the 38 companies expected to report an increase in revenue in the December quarter, and only two likely to report a fall. In the preceding quarter, 30 of the 38 companies had reported on-year growth in both aggregate net profit and revenue.  

 

Large companies continue to dominate sector earnings. The four large companies in the sector – Larsen & Toubro Ltd., Tata Steel Ltd., Hindalco Industries Ltd., and UltraTech Cement Ltd. – account for nearly 29% of the estimated aggregate net profit and 46% of the estimated aggregate revenue of this group. These four companies are the largest in their respective sub-sectors — capital goods, ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, and cement.

 

Excluding these four, the aggregate net profit of the remaining 34 companies for the December quarter is expected to grow only 16% on year, much lower than the 22% growth including these four companies. The estimated aggregate revenue growth of the group, exclusing these four companies, is expected to be nearly 13%, slightly higher than the over 12% growth if revenue of these four companies is included.

 

In the capital goods sub-sector, companies are seen grappling with mixed trends in government capital expenditure, given their reliance on contracts from the government and public sector companies. The government's capital expenditure remained healthy in the first eight months of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar), primarily driven by defence, and is expected to pick up from railways over the next few quarters, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said in a report. Revival in private capital expenditure and timely ordering of large ticket-size orders shall be key catalysts, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. said in a report. The largest capital goods company, Larsen & Toubro, is likely to report a 15% on-year rise in consolidated revenue and a 28% rise in consolidated net profit. L&T normally accounts for about 16% of the aggregate revenue of the basic industries sector.

 

In the December quarter, companies from the metals sub-sector are expected to benefit from higher sales realisations and lower input costs compared to the year-ago quarter. Higher commodity prices will drive the top line of non-steel metal companies, while steel companies will benefit from strong volume growth on year. The country's largest steel manufacturer, Tata Steel, is seen reporting a consolidated revenue growth of over 7% in Oct-Dec, while its consolidated net profit is likely to see an over four-fold increase in the December quarter, on a year-on-year basis. However, on a trailing basis, its net profit is seen falling nearly 32% and revenue is seen slipping nearly 2%. India's largest aluminium producer, Hindalco Industries Ltd.--with 1.3 million tonnes of primary aluminium and 3.6 million tonnes of alumina capacity--is expected to report an over 11% on-year rise in both net profit and revenue.

 

The four cement companies of the Nifty 200 are expected to see their net profit fall 34% on year and 31% on a trailing basis in Oct-Dec. Their revenue is expected to rise 12% on year and 7% on a trailing basis. Analysts expect revenues to rise due to the 8-10% on-year growth in demand in the December quarter, led by the cut in the goods and services tax and a decline in prices of cement across the country. Kotak Institutional Equities also sees GST cut and fall in prices as reasons for a decline in operating margins of cement companies in the December quarter. However, UltraTech Cement--the largest cement maker in the country with over 150 million tonnes per annum capacity--is seen reporting an over 16% rise in consolidated revenue and over 9% rise in its net profit during the December quarter.

 

In the case of the real estate sub-sector, analysts expect modest growth in the December quarter after a strong performance in the previous two quarters. Sustenance is expected to have driven pre-sales momentum in Oct-Dec, in the absence of any large project launches, Kotak Institutional Equities said in its report. The six real estate firms of the Nifty 200 are expected to see an aggregate revenue growth of 33% on year and 22% on a trailing basis. Their net profit is expected to rise 28% on year and 18% on a trailing basis. This higher jump appears skewed owing to the low base for Godrej Properties Ltd. and Prestige Estates, which are expected to report multifold growth in their net profit .

 

Among the rest of the companies in the sector, steel tubes and pipes manufacturer APL Apollo Tubes Ltd. is seen reporting an on-year increase in net profit at over 38%, according to an average of estimates from five brokerages. On the other hand, Steel Authority of India Ltd.'s net profit is seen jumping nearly 216% on year, the best expected net profit growth among all companies in the sector. On top line performance, Premier Energies Ltd. is expected to report a growth of over 22% on year, whereas National Aluminium Co. Ltd.'s is likely to post a fall of over 5% on year, the worst revenue performance among the sector companies.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates from 20 brokerage firms for 38 companies of the basic industries sector that are a part of the Nifty 200 index:

 

Company name	Sales, INR million	PAT, INR million	Sales Y-o-Y Change %	PAT Y-o-Y Change %	Sales Q-o-Q Change %	PAT Q-o-Q Change %
ABB India	34,720	4,407	3.18	-17.15	4.87	7.78
ACC +	63,099	5,104	6.45	-53.24	6.38	-54.39
Ambuja Cements +	100,154	8,251	7.36	-61.00	9.17	-58.51
APL Apollo Tubes +	56,705	2,998	4.38	38.15	8.92	-0.59
Astral +	15,664	1,311	12.13	14.86	-0.70	-2.78
Bharat Dynamics	10,915	2,052	31.16	39.47	-4.84	-4.95
Bharat Electronics	66,596	14,514	15.70	10.28	15.54	12.85
BHEL	86,707	3,287	19.15	163.42	15.43	-10.61
CG Power and Industrial Solutions +	32,341	3,158	28.56	31.28	10.65	10.13
Cochin Shipyard	12,019	1,944	12.34	5.48	26.34	92.30
Container Corp	23,939	3,577	8.72	4.14	1.81	-5.06
Cummins India	31,542	5,945	2.21	15.66	-0.51	-6.77
DLF +	22,168	9,427	45.01	-30.74	34.92	-0.24
Godrej Properties +	13,157	8,565	35.80	426.60	77.71	111.43
Hindalco Industries +	645,817	42,026	10.60	11.30	-2.23	-14.63
Hindustan Aeronautics	76,286	17,641	9.65	23.14	15.09	6.11
Hindustan Zinc	101,847	35,221	19.04	33.06	19.47	33.82
IRB Infrastructure Developers +	19,000	2,102	-6.19	-5.31	8.51	49.26
Jindal Steel +	128,844	4,544	9.65	-52.20	10.26	-28.81
JSW Steel +	450,643	13,931	8.91	69.89	-0.19	-14.17
L&T +	746,531	42,902	15.44	27.73	9.81	9.27
Lodha Developers +	46,842	9,745	14.72	3.19	23.32	23.56
National Aluminium Co	44,670	14,808	-4.19	-6.45	4.07	3.33
NMDC	68,954	17,943	5.58	-7.69	10.14	5.88
Oberoi Realty +	17,957	7,814	27.25	26.36	0.93	2.78
Phoenix Mills +	11,552	3,667	18.47	47.41	3.57	20.64
Polycab India +	56,828	6,481	8.74	41.64	-12.27	-5.45
Premier Energies +	20,935	3,381	22.19	32.48	13.97	-4.33
Prestige Estates +	29,175	3,708	76.34	1,994.92	19.98	-13.83
Shree Cement	47,778	3,540	12.80	54.31	11.03	27.73
Siemens +	41,386	4,044	15.37	8.76	-19.97	-16.61
Steel Authority of India	272,644	3,143	11.33	223.11	2.10	-58.93
Supreme Industries +	26,896	2,035	7.16	8.84	12.35	23.53
Tata Steel +	575,462	23,722	7.27	423.86	-1.95	-32.65
Tube Investments of India	21,216	1,844	11.07	14.72	0.12	-1.26
UltraTech Cement +	206,750	14,863	16.29	9.33	5.45	20.68
Vedanta +	439,521	58,160	12.37	63.97	10.24	50.48
Waaree Energies +	64,831	10,428	87.52	111.65	6.88	23.76
Total	4,732,089	422,230	12.29	21.90	4.67	0.75

 

Notes:
+ Consolidated Figure
* Net interest Income
Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year
# Net premium income
Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter
N.A.: Not Available
 
Estimates from: Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd., Antique Stock Broking Ltd., Centrum Broking Ltd., Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd., Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd., Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., HDFC Securities Ltd., HSBC Global Research, ICICI Securities Ltd., IIFL Capital Services Ltd., JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd., Kotak Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd., Nomura Equity Research, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd., Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd., Sharekhan Ltd., Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Ltd. and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

 

End

 

Compiled by Shivaji Jagatap

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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