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Informist, Friday, Jan. 9, 2026

 

By Avishek Rakshit

 

KOLKATA – The opening of 10 new stores during the December quarter, which took Avenue Supermarts Ltd.'s total store count to 442, is expected to support decent revenue growth for the retailer in the quarter. However, the revenue growth could have been higher had the company not faced a slowdown in same-store sales growth during the December quarter. 

 

On top of that, as seen over the past several quarters, the company is likely to continue facing headwinds from e-commerce and quick commerce platforms, which are likely to weigh on sales to some extent, brokerages cautioned. 

Avenue Supermarts' net profit for the December quarter is expected to be in the range of INR 8.3 billion-7.8 billion, according to the estimates from three brokerages. The revenue for the quarter is estimated to be in the range of INR 181 billion-176 billion, according to the estimates from the three brokerages. 

 

On a consolidated basis, Kotak Securities Ltd. estimates the company's consolidated net profit for the December quarter to be INR 8.5 billion and the consolidated revenue at nearly INR 181 billion. Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. also estimates a similar revenue for Avenue Supermarts, but pegs the consolidated net profit at INR 7.6 billion. 

 

On Jan. 2, Avenue Supermarts said its standalone revenue for the reporting quarter was INR 176 billion, up 13% on year. As of Dec. 30, the company had a total of 442 stores, including the one at Navi Mumbai in Maharashtra, which is currently closed for reconstruction, the company said. The retailer will declare its December quarter results Saturday.

 

The estimates for net profit range from INR 8.3 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. to INR 7.8 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. The revenue estimates range from INR 181 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher to INR 176 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.

 

Avenue Supermarts is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, in the range of INR 13.1 billion to INR 13.4 billion for the December quarter, according to the estimates from three brokerages. The highest estimate for EBITDA is INR 13.4 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher and the lowest is INR 13.1 billion by Nuvama. 

 

For the year-ago quarter, Avenue Supermarts had reported a net profit of INR 7.8 billion and for the trailing quarter, it had reported a net profit of INR 7.5 billion. The company's revenue was nearly INR 156 billion in Oct-Dec of the last financial year and INR 162 billion in the trailing quarter. 

 

In a note, JM Financial said the company's revenue grew 13% on year largely on account of the new store additions, but the sales per square foot, which is a commonly used performance metric in the retail industry, is expected to remain flat at INR 38,900 on an annualised basis. The brokerage is of the view that although Avenue Supermarts' top line improved due to store additions, same-store sales growth slowed to 4% in the December quarter as compared to 8.3% in the year-ago quarter. 

 

Brokerage Nuvama said it expects Avenue Supermarts to report a gross margin of 14% in the December quarter, almost unchanged from the 14.1% gross margin it had reported in the year-ago quarter, assuming stable merchandise sales mix and increasing competition, especially from the quick commerce segment. 

 

Of the nine research reports on the company available with Informist, three have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 4,369 per share, implying an upside of nearly 15% over the current market price. Three reports have a 'hold' recommendation with an average target price of INR 4,230 per share and the remaining three have a 'sell' recommendation with an average price of INR 4,050 per share. All the target prices are above the current market price.

 

At 1236 IST, shares of the company traded 1.08% lower at INR 3,749.00 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is down nearly 10% since the company announced its September quarter earnings on Oct. 11.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for Avenue Supermarts based on reports from three brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit (in INR million): 

 

Brokerage	Net Sales (in INR million)	Net Profit (in INR million)	EBITDA (in INR million)
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	1,76,126.00	8,315.00	13,152.00
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	1,76,126.00	8,111.00	13,284.00
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	1,81,049.00	7,767.00	13,397.00
Total	1,79,047.00	8,069.60	13,448.40

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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