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Informist, Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025

 

HYDERABAD - As patent expiries are approaching for some glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) category drugs, interest in this category's potential contribution to growth in the Indian pharmaceutical market is increasing. GLP-1 therapies could unlock a multi-billion-dollar growth opportunity for Indian pharmaceutical companies, potentially reshaping the domestic diabetes and obesity treatment landscape, according to Elara Securities Pvt. Ltd.

 

With semaglutide set to go off-patent in India in March, the market could scale rapidly as affordability improves, with GLP-1 drugs estimated to eventually account for 4–5% of the Indian pharmaceutical market and up to 25–30% of the diabetes segment, Elara Securities said in a report. The brokerage believes this shift alone could lift overall growth in the Indian pharma market by 1–2 percentage points over the next three to five years.

 

As of 2025, the Indian pharmaceutical market is estimated at around $55 billion, with steady annual growth of 7–8% in recent years, according to media reports. Industry forecasts indicate the market will expand significantly over the next decade, with projections suggesting it could reach $120–$130 billion by 2030.

 

Well before the patent expiry, innovators Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly launched key products of the category – semaglutide and tirzepatide – in India, while generic players in India are gearing up to jump into the fray as and when the product goes off-patent.

 

Among Indian players, companies with an established diabetes franchise and experience in injectables are best positioned to capture early share. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Lupin Ltd., Eris Lifesciences Ltd., Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd., and Intas Pharmaceuticals Ltd. are seen as relatively well placed, Elara said. Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. and Zydus Lifesciences Ltd. could also benefit despite a smaller domestic diabetes footprint, the report said.

 

Unlike earlier diabetes therapies, GLP-1 category products improve insulin response, slow gastric emptying, and reduce appetite, making them significantly more effective in managing both diabetes and obesity. In obesity, weight-loss outcomes are estimated to be three to four times superior to older treatment options, positioning GLP-1 as a potential first-line therapy in metabolic syndrome.

 

Semaglutide and tirzepatide, marketed by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, have become the largest-selling drugs in pharmaceutical history, with a combined annual sales run rate of about $72 billion. These two molecules have expanded the global diabetes-obesity market by an estimated 40–50%, highlighting how GLP-1 category products are enlarging the addressable market rather than merely displacing existing therapies, Elara said.

 

India remains at a very early stage of adoption, the report said, adding that tirzepatide currently has an estimated annual sales run rate of only INR 120 million, reflecting limited affordability and access. With an estimated 150–200 million obese individuals and a large, under-treated diabetes population, demand is expected to accelerate sharply once generic semaglutide becomes available at lower price points, the report said.

 

Even as generics enter the market, innovator products are expected to retain a meaningful share, particularly among affluent patients. Doctors are likely to continue prescribing original brands from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. At the same time, generics will need to balance competitive pricing with sustained investment in doctor and patient engagement, given the injectable nature of the therapy, the report said.

 

The brokerage said Indian companies are also well-positioned globally in the generics space to compete in this category. Natco Pharma, Dr. Reddy's, Zydus Lifesciences, Sun Pharma, and Aurobindo Pharma are among the first-to-file exclusivity holders in the US market for generic semaglutide versions of Ozempic, while Natco Pharma, in partnership with Viatris Inc., holds sole first-to-file exclusivity for Wegovy or tirzepatide. However, tirzepatide is expected to remain under patent protection in most markets until the late 2030s.

 

While GLP-1s are likely to affect other diabetes therapies, the insulin market could shrink by 10–15% and other oral anti-diabetes drugs may see slower growth rather than outright decline. Overall, GLP-1 category products are positioned as a structural growth driver that could materially alter both the size and composition of the Indian pharmaceutical market over the coming decade, Elara said.

 

US$1 = INR 89.65

 

Reported by Narayana Krishna

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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