More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025

By Gopika Balasubramanium

MUMBAI – Analysts are divided on the direction of the market Friday, with some analysts expecting the benchmark indices to inch up further and others expecting selling pressure near current levels. Investors will monitor the movement of the rupee as the currency is on a downward spiral, hitting new record lows in recent days. Updates on India-US deal trade deal amid ongoing discussions in New Delhi will also be in focus. Investors will also be keen on India's CPI inflation data for November due at 1600 IST.

"Going ahead, we continue to maintain sell on rise trading approach as long as Nifty 50 is holding below 26050 spot levels on closing basis," Vipin Kumar, assistant vice president at Globe Market Capital said. The 50-stock index is expected find support at 25700 points and face resistance at 26050 points.

Thursday, the Nifty 50 closed at 25898.55 points, up 140.55 points or 0.6%. The 50-stock index found support at 25700 points after briefly breaching the level early in the day. The BSE Sensex closed at 84818.13 points, up 426.86 points or 0.5%. Mid-cap indices outperformed both the benchmark and small-cap indices.

"The market is in an attempt of reversing its short term down trend," Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical analyst at HDFC Securities, said in a note. "Further sustainable upside from here could confirm crucial bottom reversal pattern," he added. Hence, a decisive move above the hurdle of 25950-26000 points could possibly lead to upside to 26250-26300 points in the near term, Shetti said. The immediate support is at 25750 points.

Earlier in the day, HSBC Global, which is "overweight" on India, retained its 2026-end target of 94000 points for the Sensex, an upside of 11% from the current level. Buoyed by lower inflation, tax reforms, and easier monetary policy, the broking firm believes Indian equities are set for a stronger position in 2026. "The worst of the earnings downgrades seems to be behind us and recent results have boosted our confidence in the growth outlook," HSBC Global said. It said valuations were "more reasonable", with India's premium over other emerging markets back to normal levels.

Among sectors, HSBC Global is keen on those driven by domestic demand and strong growth prospects. The brokerage is "overweight" on sectors such as banks and financial services, consumer discretionary, which includes automobile, telecommunication, and energy.

Emkay Global Financial Services in a webinar said it expects the Nifty 50 to hit 29000 points in 2026, on recovery in consumption in Oct-Mar, monetary policy easing and liquidity infusion by the Reserve Bank of India, recovery in capital expenditure cycle, and expectations of a trade deal between India and the US. Unlike HSBC Global, Emkay Global said large-cap stocks are overvalued and mid- and small-cap stocks are near their five-year average. It also expects the Indian stock market's valuations to remain elevated in 2026.

On outflow of foreign investments, HSBC Global said India has largely been a funding market for artificial intelligence stocks in Asia this year. This indicates that investors sold Indian equities to buy Korean or Taiwanese stocks, HSBC Global said. "Between September 2024 and November 2025, cUSD28bn ($28 billion) flowed out of India and foreign ownership of Indian equities is now below 17% of the market, the lowest level in 14 years," it said. Indian equities will likely benefit if investors shift their focus beyond AI, the brokerage said. The brokerage also said that though a trade deal with the US would be a positive, in its view, "it is not essential for the return of foreign investors."

"US tariffs are finally starting to compound into stress across asset classes," Emkay Global said in a separate note. The rupee has been under continuous pressure since the initial tariff announcement in April, the brokerage said, adding that this weakness is now visible in domestic liquidity. "The equity market is finally feeling the pinch, as both FPIs (worried about the currency) and local investors (spooked by the liquidity stress) head for the door," it said. 

Emkay Global said RBI's efforts to bring stability to the currency has met with mixed success and only a final India-US trade deal will deliver a lasting solution. "We continue to see extreme market volatility in the short term – near-term relief from the RBI/Fed measures could be quickly overwhelmed by CAD (current account deficit) pressures," the brokerage said. "The best way to ride this out is to stick with large caps, with private lenders, pharma, and IT as the preferred defensive sectors," it said. The broking firm also favours consumer discretionary companies amid rupee pressure. The Indian currency hit a new record low of 90.4825 against the greenback during the session. The rupee ended Thursday's session at 90.3675. So far this year, the rupee has depreciated around 6%.

On the data front, India's CPI inflation is expected to rise to 0.7% in November from a record low of 0.25% in October, as the metric loses statistical effect of a favourable base, as per an Informist poll of 17 economists. This will likely be the tenth consecutive month when CPI inflation stayed below the RBI's medium-term target of 4%.  End

Edited by Ashish Shirke

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.