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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025

 

--Kotak Securities: Copper prices remain sensitive to policy shocks 

--Kotak Securities: See MCX copper up 10% at INR 1,210-INR 1,220 per kg 2026 

 

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – Copper prices are set to enter 2026 with a "pronounced upward bias" as they remain highly sensitive to policy and supply shocks, Kotak Securities said in its market outlook for 2026. The brokerage expects copper prices to rise 10% to INR 1,210-INR 1,220 per kg on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India next year due to strong demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence-related data centres.

 

"This is another hot metal, which has amazing outlook" due to rising electrification and hoarding amid concerns over tight supply, said Anindya Banerjee, commodity analyst at Kotak Securities.

 

Copper prices were "turbulent" in 2025 as they were "repeatedly unsettled" by tariff shocks, acute physical tightness, supply disruptions and sharp shifts in regional trade flows, Kotak Securities said in its report. "While prices oscillated between multi-month lows and fresh cycle highs, what stood out more than the headline volatility was the extent to which inventories, spreads and arbitrage relationships came under sustained strain," it said. 

 

US's tariff proposal distorted consumption patterns, triggering heavy pre-buying and diverting copper towards US ports, the report said. Copper enters 2026 with a structural tightness amid supply disruptions in major mines such as Codelco and Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine. Market participants expect full recovery to take several years, with normal operations unlikely before 2027. At 1743 IST, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was up over 1% at $11,618.50 per tonne. The December copper contract was up 1.2% at INR 1,092.45 per kg on MCX.

 

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are likely to be subdued in 2026 due to structural oversupply in the market, with production growth continuing to outweigh demand. The brokerage expects crude oil prices to slide 9-10% from the current levels of around $60 per barrel, barring brief spikes due to geopolitical tensions.

 

"This market is flush with supplies," Banerjee said. The US Energy Information Administration expects global supply to reach 105.9 million barrels per day in 2025 against a demand of 104 million barrels per day, implying a surplus of 1.9 million barrels per day.

 

Crude oil started 2025 on a strong note and jumped above $80 per barrel in mid-January following the announcement of US sanctions on the Russian oil industry. However, market participants became increasingly convinced that the enforcement of sanctions against Russian crude oil was softening, raising the likelihood of more barrels flowing quietly into global markets.

 

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil has fallen from $71.7 per barrel at the end of last year to around $58 per barrel as of Wednesday, down roughly 19% year-to-date, as geopolitical disruptions failed to offset the steady increase in supply, the report said.

 

"The nearly 19?cline in WTI crude over the year reflected not only the failure of temporary disruptions to materially alter balances but also the deeper reality of swelling non-OPEC+ output, fragile demand recovery, persistent inventory accumulation, and a macroeconomic environment that favored caution," the brokerage said.

 

At 1745 IST, the most-active January contract of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange was up 0.5% at $58.56 per barrel. The December contract of crude oil on MCX was up 0.6% at INR 5,278 per barrel.  End 

 

US$1 = INR 89.96

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker, J. Navya Sruthi, and Anjana Therese Antony

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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