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Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 10, 2025
 

--Kotak Securities: Gold expected to scale $5,000/oz over next year

--Kotak Sec: See silver $75/oz assuming rate cuts, strong industrial demand 

--Kotak Securities: Silver prices seen $48-$70 per oz in 2026 

 

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – Gold prices may scale to $5,000 per ounce over the next year and remain in a "higher-for-longer" regime amid rising geopolitical uncertainties, expectations of further monetary policy easing in the US, and slower global economic growth, Kotak Securities said in its market outlook for 2026. Ongoing diversification from fiat assets, strong investor demand, and persistent central bank buying, particularly in emerging markets due to de-dollarisation, continue to act as a tailwind for the precious metal. 

 

"Together, these forces suggest that while short-term consolidation is natural after such a dramatic rally in 2025, the fundamental backdrop continues to favour gold heading into 2026 and beyond," Kotak said in its report. 

 

International gold prices on COMEX decisively broke the $4,000-per-ounce barrier with different contracts hitting record highs above the $4,380-per-ounce level in October, the report said. The precious metal rose more than 55% from late 2024 and scaled 50 fresh all-time highs in 2025, it added. 

 

Domestic gold prices rose to a record INR 132,000-per-10 gram levels in October, with an increase of more than 60% year-to-date, outpacing international gains due to depreciation in the Indian rupee, the report said. The brokerage sees domestic gold prices rising to INR 150,000 per 10 grams. "It might so happen that it can exceed that. But we want to be conservative," Anindya Banerjee, Kotak's commodity analyst, said.

 

Meanwhile, in 2025, global gold-linked exchange-traded funds registered record collective inflows in more than a decade, driven by portfolio rebalancing amid fluctuating yields, persistent inflation uncertainty, and increased geopolitical tensions. The inflows in October were $8.2 billion, led by North America at $6.5 billion, and Asia, particularly China and India, at $6.1 billion, the report said. In November, the inflows were $5.2 billion. Global gold ETFs ended October with assets under management at $503 billion and $530 billion in November, according to the World Gold Council. 

 

"Gold ETFs in India accumulated record net inflows between INR 285-290 billion (around $3.43 billion) between January and November, their highest annual inflows on record, surpassing all combined inflows from March 2020 to December 2024," the report said. 

 

"In an era when we are facing rampant currency debasement, commodities become your new currency," Banerjee said. "When you look at gold. You have to compare it with the other currency. And the other currencies, in this case, the US dollar is not looking so great." The dollar slipped over 12% during the first half due to persistent fiscal deficit, rising US debt, heightened geopolitical instability, and global de-dollarisation trends. 

 

The US fiscal landscape deteriorated meaningfully after the passage of Trumps "Big, Beautiful Bill", projected to add $3.8 trillion to federal debt. Investor concerns surrounding ballooning deficits and heightened Treasury issuance fed directly into safe-haven demand, the report said. Additionally, tariff shocks due to China–US tensions and global geopolitical tensions reinforced the premium on assets unlinked to sovereign risk. 

 

At 1519 IST, the most-active February gold contract on the MCX was down 0.1% at INR 129,925 per 10 grams. The most-active February contract on the COMEX was down 0.3% at $4,222.7 per ounce. 

 

SILVER

Silver showed a remarkable performance in 2025, surging to a record high of $62.14 per ounce on COMEX and above INR 191,800 per kg on MCX amid strong investment flows, robust industrial demand, and structural supply shortages. Kotak expects silver prices to remain volatile but fundamentally strong in 2026, supported by a weak dollar, expanding use in renewables, grid infrastructure, and artificial intelligence-linked technologies.

 

The brokerage sees silver prices in a broad range of $48-$70 per ounce in 2026. Under conditions of aggressive monetary easing or stronger-than-expected industrial demand, the brokerage sees "potential spikes toward $75" per ounce next year. 

 

The year opened strongly, with silver trading at $30 per ounce on COMEX and around INR 90,000 per kilogram on MCX. "With over 100% YTD (year-to-date) gains, silver outperformed gold as well as major equity indices," the report said. Even after corrections, prices held above $55 per ounce for most of the period, reflecting sustained confidence in the metal's fundamental strength. The gold-to-silver ratio fell from above 107 in April to 72 by December, signalling stronger institutional interest in silver relative to gold, the report said. 

 

At 1520 IST, the most-active March silver contract on the MCX was up over 1% at INR 190,160 per kg. The most-active March contract on COMEX was up 1% at $61.48 per ounce.  End

 

US$1 = INR 89.97

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker, J. Navya Sruthi, and Anjana Therese Antony

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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