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Informist, Tuesday, Dec. 9, 2025

 

By Shubham Rana

 

NEW DELHI – India's CPI inflation is expected to rise to 0.7% in November from a record low of 0.25% in the previous month, mainly as the statistical effect of a favourable base fades away, according to an Informist poll of 17 economists.

 

Despite the rise, retail inflation in November is still seen under 1% for the second month in the current CPI series, which has data since 2014. Inflation was 5.48% in November last year and fell to a record low of 0.25% in October because of a high base, lower food prices, and reduction in Goods and Services Tax rates.

 

Economists' estimates for November CPI inflation range from 0.4% to 1.0%. The statistics ministry will release CPI data for November at 1600 IST on Friday.

 

This will likely be the tenth consecutive month when CPI inflation stayed below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%. This will also be the fourth time in five months when inflation has been below the lower end of the RBI's target range of 2-6%.

 

Low inflation in 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) has allowed the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee to lower interest rates by 125 basis points in 2025, including a 25-bps cut last week. The RBI also lowered its headline inflation forecast for the ongoing December quarter by 120 bps to 0.6% and reduced the full-year projection for FY26 by 60 bps to 2.0%. 

 

"We anticipate further easing in household goods and services prices owing to recent GST rate cuts," ANZ Bank said in a report. "There are no signs of demand-driven price pressures that should concern the RBI, leaving room to maintain growth-centric monetary policy and provide a cushion against economic weakness in upcoming quarters."

 

Food inflation is expected to stay in the deflationary zone in November as well, even as prices, particularly of vegetables, rose month-on-month in November, economists said. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, retail prices of tomatoes and potatoes rose 15% and 5%, respectively, from October.

 

Economists at Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. expect food and beverage inflation to rise to (-)2.5% in November from (-)3.7% in October. Union Bank of India projects food and beverage inflation to rise to (-)2.8%.

  

Core inflation--which excludes volatile food and fuel items--is seen around 4.4% in November, unchanged from October. "Core inflation during the month stayed muted as gold prices were more or less flat," economists at Union Bank of India said in a report. "Underlying price pressures stay subdued, and we will also closely watch for further impact of GST rate cuts, if any, is captured in CPI inflation."

 

The following is a summary of the poll on CPI inflation in November:

 

ORGANISATION	CPI INFLATION ESTIMATE
Capital Economics	0.4%
India Ratings and Research	0.6%
Sunidhi Securities	0.63%
ICICI Bank	0.66%
HDFC Bank	0.68%
IDFC FIRST Bank	0.7%
QuantEco Research	0.71%
YES Bank	0.74%
Union Bank of India	0.74%
STCI Primary Dealer	0.76%
Moody's Analytics	0.8%
Societe Generale	0.8%
ANZ Bank	0.9%
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership	0.9%
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.	0.93%
Kotak Mahindra Bank	1.0%
CareEdge Ratings	1.0%

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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