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Informist, Friday, Dec. 5, 2025

MUMBAI – Shares of oil companies are expected to trade in a thin range next week, in the absence of major triggers for the sector. Investors will track the movement of the domestic currency. Since the Indian rupee is depreciating, the realisation of oil producers will be better, an analyst covering the sector said. This week, the rupee crossed the 90-per-dollar mark and a further depreciation could benefit the domestic oil producers. On the other hand, the same could hurt the margins of oil marketing players.

The gross refining margins of refiners are much better as compared to the previous quarter, which will drive the earnings growth of these companies in the December quarter, the analyst added. The sharp fall in crude oil prices in the September quarter had led to a significant rise in earnings of oil refiners.

At 2125 IST, the February Brent Crude futures contract traded on the Intercontinental Exchange was up 1% at $63.93 per barrel, which is sharply lower than the $80 per barrel in June. "Crude oil (price) remains supported by geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of (US) Fed easing, but significant upside is constrained without a major supply disruption from the Middle East or Russia," Kaynat Chainwala, assistant vice president of commodity research at Kotak Securities, said in a note.

On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his government is ready to continue "uninterrupted" shipments of fuel for the fast-growing Indian economy. His comments come amid the 50% US tariffs on India for the latter's crude oil imports from Russia.

Brokerage firm Nomura expects 4-5% fall in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of oil marketing companies for every 1% depreciation in the domestic currency against the dollar. The major oil refiners in India are Hindustan Petroleum Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp., and Indian Oil Corp. Meanwhile, for upstream companies, the impact of currency depreciation will likely be more than offset by mark-to-market loss on dollar-denominated liabilities, Nomura said in its report Wednesday.

Despite the decision to raise oil production for November, the oil output of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries fell in November, as per a Reuters survey. Oil outages in some member countries of the OPEC led to lower output than its target, the survey said. The OPEC pumped 28.40 million barrels per day in November, down 30,000 barrels per day from October, with Nigeria and Iraq recording the largest declines, Reuters reported Thursday.

On Friday, the Nifty Oil & Gas index closed 0.1% higher at 11905.60 points after falling 3% in the last six consecutive sessions. The index could see support at 11700 points and face resistance between 12100-12250 points, according to technical analysts.

TOP HEADLINES

* S&P ups RIL's long-term issuer credit rating to 'A-' with a stable outlook

* S&P Global ups rtg on RIL's senior unsecured dlr-denominated notes to 'A-'

* ONGC gets govt OK to re-employee Arun Kumar Singh as chairman
* Petronet LNG to provide ONGC ethane facilities, inks INR 50-bln, 15-yr deal
* Govt approves Numaligarh Refinery upgradation to Navratna status

* Oil India commences offshore drilling at Kerala-Konkan basin

Following are the resistance and support levels for the stocks for next week as per calculations by Informist based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

End

US$1 = INR 89.98

Reported by Adhithya Aji 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

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