Weak La Nina to prevail over next three months, says world meteorology body
This story was originally published at 11:45 IST on 5 December 2025
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MUMBAI – The World Meteorological Organization has projected a 55% chance of weak La Nina impacting weather climate patterns over the next three months. La Nina has a temporary cooling influence on global average temperatures, but many regions are likely to be warmer than normal, it said in a release.
La Nina refers to the periodic large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, including changes in winds, pressure, and rainfall patterns.
Borderline La Nina conditions were present across the tropical Pacific as of mid-November, according to the latest report from the World Meteorological Organzation's Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction. About 55% chance of the cooler-than-normal equatorial Pacific will remain at La Nina levels from December 2025 to February 2026, according to model prediction and expert assessment.
Additionally, there is a 45% chance of a return to ENSO-neutral conditions estimated during the same period. A return to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected to see a gradual rise from about 65-75% during Jan–Mar and Feb–Apr.
"Seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina are essential planning tools for climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, energy, health and transport. They are also a key component of WMO's contribution to support humanitarian operations. This climate intelligence helps us to avert millions of dollars in economic losses and to save countless lives," said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Celeste Saulo in a press release.
However, the world meteorology body does not see any chance of El Nino emerging during Dec-Feb. "The likelihood of El Nino conditions emerging during the forecast period is negligible," it said. Temperatures are likely to be above normal in much of the northern hemisphere and large parts of the southern hemisphere during the Dec–Feb, it added. End
Reported by Udita S. Jaiswal
Edited by Subhojit Sarkar
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