Informist Poll
Gold seen up in Dec but gains to be capped on thin volumes
This story was originally published at 19:00 IST on 3 December 2025
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Dec. 3, 2025
By Afra Abubacker
NEW DELHI – Gold futures are likely to rise further in December but most analysts expect the upside to be limited as trading volumes thin out and liquidity drops during the year-end holiday period.
As per the median of estimates from nine broking firms polled by Informist, the February gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India are expected to be in a range of INR 125,000-INR 135,000 per 10 grams in December. On COMEX, gold prices are seen in a range of $4,100 per ounce to $4,400 per ounce during the month.
With most major players stepping away from the market until mid-January, gold prices are likely to consolidate with an upward bias, analysts said. "Basically, in December month, we see a contraction in volumes. After Dec. 15, major buyers will stay off their positions and will make positions after Jan. 15," said Ravinder Sharma, senior analyst at SMC Global Securities.
Amid thin volumes, December is not likely to be "a trend-setting month," said Jateen Trivedi, analyst at LKP Securities.
However, expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December, robust central bank purchases, and firm investor demand for gold are likely to continue to lend support for the precious metal. Typically, a lower interest rate environment boosts the appeal of non-interest-yielding gold. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, 87% of traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on Dec. 10, while 13% of traders anticipate no change in interest rates.
In November, gold prices witnessed some correction due to profit-booking after they hit a lifetime-high of $4,398 per ounce on Oct. 20. At 1553 IST, the February gold contract on MCX was up 0.4% at INR 121,701 per 10 grams, and the same-month gold contract on the COMEX was up 0.2% at $4,229.3 an ounce.
Manoj Kumar Jain, director at Prithvi Finmart, continues to bet big on gold. "It's not technical momentum. It's all fundamental factors, which are driving gold prices," he said. Persistent purchases of gold by global central banks, portfolio diversification by high net-worth Individuals, and rising probability of a Fed rate cut will drive gold prices higher in December and next year as well. "All these fundamental factors will drive gold prices even in 2026. For 2026, we are targeting prices of around $5,000 per ounce in the international market, and INR 150,000 in the domestic market," Jain said.
When asked how far will gold prices retreat if Fed decides to keep rates unchanged in December, Jain said: "If there is no rate cut in the December policy meeting and the tone of the Fed remains hawkish regarding the future interest rates, prices could retrace to $3,910 per ounce in international markets and INR 118,000 per 10 gram in the domestic market." However, Jain stressed the likelihood of the US Fed not cutting the rate this month is very low.
According to analysts, the market has already priced in the chances of rates remaining unchanged. "Much of the hawkish scenario is partially priced in, which limits steep downside. If December data rules out a Fed cut entirely, gold could slip toward the lower end of the expected range ($4,198 per ounce and INR 125,042 per 10 grams)," said Pankaj Singh, investment manager at smallcase.
Even if global gold prices pull back slightly, MCX gold prices are likely to be cushioned by a weak rupee against the dollar. "Rupee volatility widens the risk band to INR 125,042–INR 137,622 per 10 grams, broadly mirroring the global range but slightly skewed to the upside in MCX terms," Singh said.
"We are expecting the rupee could depreciate to 91.40 odd levels. But if anything worse happens to the rupee, it will be an additional price hike in domestic markets," Jain said. On Wednesday, the rupee closed down 0.3% at 90.19 against the dollar, after hitting a record low of 90.29 earlier in the day.
The following are the details of estimates of nine brokerages for gold prices in December, in alphabetical order:
|
Brokerage |
MCX support (INR/10 gm) |
MCX resistance (INR/10 gm) |
COMEX support ($/oz) |
COMEX resistance ($/oz) |
|
Emkay Global Financial Services |
125,000 |
142,000 |
3,950 |
4,400 |
|
Kedia Advisory |
129,240 |
131,600 |
4,238 |
4,384 |
|
LKP Securities |
124,000 |
135,000 |
3,950 |
4,300 |
|
Nirmal Bang |
123,000 |
135,000 |
3,800 |
4,500 |
|
Prithvi Finmart |
125,000 |
138,000 |
4,100 |
4,400 |
|
Reliance Securities |
125,000 |
135,000 |
4,000 |
4,270 |
|
Smallcase |
125,042 |
137,622 |
4,198 |
4,628 |
|
SMC Global Securities |
124,200 |
134,500 |
4,140 |
4,390 |
|
Ventura Securities |
123,000 |
135,000 |
4,100 |
45,000 |
|
Median |
125,000 |
135,000 |
4,100 |
4,400 |
End
US$1 = INR 90.19
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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