India Stocks Outlook
View divided; Q2 GDP, MPC outcome to lend cues
This story was originally published at 19:18 IST on 28 November 2025
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By Gopika Balasubramanium
MUMBAI – Analysts are divided on the near-term outlook for the market, with some expecting the benchmark indices to notch new record highs and others seeing a phase of consolidation. Though the indices this week set new record highs, they have not done so on a closing basis. Once they end at record closing highs, more upside is likely, analysts said. That said, the higher-than-expected GDP growth for the September quarter and a likely rate cut at the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy meeting next week, are seen as positive triggers for the market.
"If Nifty 50 maintains 26000-26050 levels, any pullbacks will be seen as buy on dip opportunities," Bhavya Shah, technical analyst at StoxBox, said. "My view on the market is of a sideways consolidation until we get a fresh all time high closing, post which we could see a bullish momentum," he added. In December, he expects the Nifty 50 to find support at 26100-26000 points and face resistance at 26320-26500 points. Some technical analysts expect the index to consolidate in December while some others see it rise to 26700 points.
On Friday, the Nifty 50 ended at 26202.95 points, down 12.60 points. The 50-stock index moved largely within a 100-point range intra-day. The BSE Sensex closed at 85706.67 points, down 13.71 points. The indices have closed higher for the third month in a row, rising nearly 2% on month in November. But, the rise was slower than the 4.5% rise seen in October.
India's GDP expanded faster than expected yet again with growth rising to a six-quarter high of 8.2% in Jul-Sept, data from the statistics ministry Friday showed. This was following a better-than-expected GDP growth in June quarter at 7.8%. The reading was one percentage point higher than 7.2% forecasted by economists polled by Informist earlier this week and 120 basis points higher than the RBI's forecast of 7.0%.
An above normal monsoon, buoyancy in services sector, lower goods and services tax and strong construction activity have accelerated growth momentum despite trade tariff uncertainty and selective private sector capital expenditure, SBI Capital Markets said. The risks remain evenly balanced as we expect 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) real GDP growth to be higher than 7% with slight moderation in Oct-Mar, SBI Capital said. "Nominal GDP will remain challenged in FY26 as inflation sinks, and we expect (around) 8.5% y/y (year-on-year) figure to register," it said.
"Domestically, the stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP print, driven by resilient manufacturing, solid construction activity, and healthy private consumption, is set to support sentiment in the near term," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said. "With robust GDP momentum and improving credit growth providing a solid backdrop for earnings acceleration in H2 (Oct-Mar), the medium-term outlook remains positive," said Nair, adding that pockets of short-term volatility may persist, influenced by global cues and central bank policy announcements. End
Edited by Ashish Shirke
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