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Informist, Friday, Nov. 28, 2025

 

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--India Jul-Sept GDP growth at 8.2% 
--India Jul-Sept GDP growth at 8.2% vs 5.6% year ago 
--Informist poll estimated India Jul-Sept GDP growth at 7.2% 
--India Jul-Sept GVA growth 8.1% vs 5.8% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept nominal GDP growth 8.7% vs 8.3% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept agriculture sector growth 3.5% vs 4.1% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept mining sector growth -0.04% vs -0.4% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept manufacturing sector growth 9.1% vs 2.2% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept construction sector growth 7.2% vs 8.4% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept private consumption growth 7.9% vs 6.4% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept gross fixed capital formation growth 7.3% vs 6.7% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept govt consumption expenditure growth -2.7% vs 4.3% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept industry growth 7.7% vs 3.8% year ago 
--India Jul-Sept services sector growth 9.2% vs 7.2% year ago 
--India Apr-Sept GDP growth 8.0% vs 6.1% year ago 
--India Apr-Sept nominal GDP growth 8.8% vs 9.0% year ago
 

 

NEW DELHI - India's economy expanded more than expected once again with GDP growth rising to a six-quarter high of 8.2% in the September quarter, data released by the statistics ministry Friday showed. The Indian economy had grown higher-than-expected in the June quarter as well at 7.8%. GDP growth was 5.6% in the year-ago quarter. 

 

Growth in the September quarter was one percentage point higher than the 7.2% projected by economists in an Informist poll. GDP growth in the quarter was 120 basis points higher than the Reserve Bank of India's forecast of 7.0%.

 

No economist in the Informist poll had projected growth topping 8% in the September quarter.

 

At 9.2%, services sector led the GDP growth in the September quarter, driven by a nine-quarter high growth of 10.2% in 'financial, real estate, and professional services'. Industry growth rose to a five-quarter high of 7.7% in Jul-Sept from 6.3% in Apr-Jun. Agriculture sector growth was 3.5% in the September quarter, the slowest since Apr-Jun 2024. Growth in the gross value added rose to an eight-quarter high of 8.1% in the September quarter.

GDP growth was also supported by the statistical effect of low inflation with nominal GDP growth slowing to a four-quarter low of 8.7% in Jul-Sept from 8.8% in Apr-Jun. "The sharply higher than expected 2QFY26 GDP was broad-based but comes on the back of a very low deflator," Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, said. "The single digit nominal GDP growth continues to signal tepid underlying activity." 

 

Strong headline growth could deter the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee from lowering interest rates next week. Prior to the GDP data, most economists had expected the MPC to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points on Dec. 5 with retail inflation at a record low of 0.25% in October and expected to stay below the central bank's 4% target in the near term. 

 

The 10-year benchmark government bond yield rose 4 bps after the release of GDP data, signalling that the market scaled back bets of a rate cut next week. Kotak's Bhardwaj said that despite the high real GDP growth, she expects a 25-bps rate cut next week "as inflation trajectory remains benign".

 

On the expenditure side, private final consumption expenditure growth rose to 7.9% in the September quarter from 7.0% in the June quarter. Gross fixed capital formation, which reflects investments in the economy, slowed down to 7.3% in Jul-Sept from 7.8% a quarter ago. Government final consumption expenditure contracted 2.7% on year in the September quarter against a rise of 7.4% in Apr-Jun.

 

The GDP has grown 8.0% in the first half of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) and could push economists and the RBI to raise full year growth forecasts. The pace of economic activity is expected to slow down going ahead with the central bank projecting FY26 GDP growth at 6.8%. The RBI projects December quarter GDP growth at 6.4% and March quarter growth at 6.2%. 

 

"An adverse base, the potential negative impact of US tariffs and limited headroom for capital spending by the Government of India (vis-a-vis the Budget Estimates) may dampen the pace of growth from the robust 8.0% seen in H1 FY2026," Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA, said in a note. "Nevertheless, the FY2026 real GDP expansion now appears set to materially exceed 7%."

 

The following table shows quarterly growth in gross value added at basic prices and GDP for the September quarter and previous quarters:

 

	Jul-Sept 2025	Apr-Jun 2025	Jan-Mar 2025	Oct-Dec 2024	Jul-Sept 2024	Apr-Jun 2024
Agriculture	3.5%	3.7%	5.4%	6.6%	4.1%	1.5%
Industry	7.7%	6.3%	6.5%	4.8%	3.8%	8.5%
Mining	(-)0.04%	(-)3.1%	2.5%	1.3%	(-)0.4%	6.6%
Manufacturing	9.1%	7.7%	4.8%	3.6%	2.2%	7.6%
Power and gas	4.4%	0.5%	5.4%	5.1%	3.0%	10.2%
Construction	7.2%	7.6%	10.8%	7.9%	8.4%	10.1%
Services	9.2%	9.3%	7.3%	7.4%	7.2%	6.8%
Trade, hotels	7.4%	8.6%	6.0%	6.7%	6.1%	5.4%
Financial services	10.2%	9.5%	7.8%	7.1%	7.2%	6.6%
Other services	9.7%	9.8%	8.7%	8.9%	8.9%	9.0%
GVA	8.1%	7.6%	6.8%	6.5%	5.8%	6.5%
GDP	8.2%	7.8%	7.4%	6.4%	5.6%	6.5%

 

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

 

End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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