Monthly Economic Review
India's GDP likely grew 7-7.5% in Jul-Sept, says finance ministry
This story was originally published at 14:08 IST on 27 November 2025
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--Fin min: GDP growth for Jul-Sept seen between 7% and 7.5%
--CONTEXT: Fin min releases Monthly Economic Review for October
--Fin min: Global uncertainties warrant continued vigilance of the economy
--Fin min: Econ entered H2 on stable footing anchored by resilient demand
--Fin min: Econ entered H2 on stable footing with well-contained inflation
--Fin min: Despite challenges Indian economy on stable footing
--Fin min: See India econ preserving growth momentum through rest of FY26
--Fin min: External sector uncertain but global pressures eased from earlier
--Fin min:Inflation outlook encouraging on softening global commodity prices
--Fin min: Strong svcs exports to counterbalance volatility in goods trade
NEW DELHI – India's GDP likely grew in the range of 7% to 7.5% in the September quarter, the finance ministry said Thursday. The government will release the GDP growth data for Jul-Sept on Friday. According to an Informist poll, the GDP growth for the quarter was 7.2%.
GDP growth in the range of 7–7.5% indicates continued strength in underlying economic activity, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review for October. Overall, the economy entered the second half of 2025–26 (Apr-Mar) on a stable footing, anchored by well-contained inflation, resilient domestic demand and supportive policy dynamics, the ministry said in the report.
The finance ministry expects the economy to maintain this growth momentum throughout the rest of the current financial year. India's inflation outlook is also encouraging due to softening global commodity prices, the report said. The CPI inflation had dropped to a record low of 0.25% in October.
However, the economy warrants continued vigilance given the external uncertainties, the report said. "The external environment remains characterised by elevated trade policy uncertainty, though global pressures have moderated relative to earlier peaks," the report said.
Due to the global uncertainties and the 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods, India's merchandise exports fell 11.8% to $34.38 billion in October. Meanwhile, in the same month, India's services exports jumped to a record high of $38.52 billion. According to the ministry's report, the persistent strength in services exports provides an important counterbalance to the volatility in merchandise trade. End
US$1 = INR 89.26
Reported by Krity Ambey
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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