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Informist, Tuesday, Nov. 25, 2025

 

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--Nirmal Bang's Kunal Shah:See industrial metals consolidate another 1-2 mos
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: India's copper demand may rise in double digits in 2026
--CONTEXT: Nirmal Bang Commodity Head Kunal Shah in interview with Informist
--Nirmal Bang's Shah:Short-term correction great chance to position for 2026
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: 2026 will be the year of industrial metals
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: Copper can be the next gold in 2026
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: Very bullish on copper, may give 25-30% return in 2026
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: Peg 2026 copper price target at $13,000-$13,500/tn
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: See crude oil market rebalance itself in 2026
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: See gradual upside in crude oil prices in 2026
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: Don't see WTI fall below $50-$53/bbl, Brent below $55
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: See WTI at $65-$66/bbl, Brent at $70/bbl in 6 months
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: See 15-20% return on crude oil in 2026
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: See global central bank gold buys avg 800-850 tn 2026
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: Near-term upside in gold capped at $4,300/oz
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: Cautiously optimistic on gold in 2026
--Nirmal Bang's Shah: India's gold imports to moderate in coming months

 

By Ashutosh Pati and Abhijit Doshi

 

MUMBAI – The downward pressure on industrial metals may last for one or two months more but after that they are likely to take centrestage because of an expected stimulus from China, deficit in the concentrate market, and growing demand, according to Kunal Shah, vice president and head of commodities research at Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd.

 

All the metals look very promising going forward and this short-term correction is a great opportunity for investors to position themselves for 2026, he said. Since gold, silver and other precious metals outperformed this year, "we believe that next year (2026) will be the year for industrial metals," Shah told Informist in an interview.

 

"Copper can be the next gold for the year 2026," he said. Shah is very bullish on copper and sees returns on the red metal in 2026 at 25-30%. "...whenever there are supply side issue arising, it is very difficult to predict the content of the return, but I would not be surprised that even if it (copper) gives 25-30% return in the year 2026," Shah said. He sees copper prices at $13,000-$13,500 per tonne next year.

 

Three factors will play a major role in driving prices of metals next year, first being China, the most important market for industrial metals. China is going to announce a stimulus for the property market, which accounts for majority of the demand, Shah said. The second factor is that "the concentrate side of a lot of these metals is showing deficit," he said.

 

While the supply of concentrates is shrinking, the demand for these metals is growing at a rapid rate, especially for copper. With every nation starting new data centres, they will require more power and more transmission, for which more power cables are required. There's also a lot of demand from the automobile sector for electric vehicles. In EVs, 25-30 kg of additional copper is required in each car as compared to the traditional cars, Shah said.

 

Moreover, the growth in India's power sector is also expected to boost demand for the red metal. The growth in demand for copper in India is 8% and "with India's GDP expected to rise and test $5 trillion in the next two years, I will not be surprised that we are growing at a double digit growth rate when it comes to copper demand," Shah said.

 

"In this multipolar world, India is going to have a very inclusive growth. And in this growth, the demand growth of all of these non-ferrous metals is going to be quite exponential going forward," he added.

 

CRUDE OIL

Though prices of crude oil have fallen sharply this year, Shah does not expect West Texas Intermediate crude to fall below $50-$53 per barrel and Brent to go below $55 per barrel. Rise in crude oil supply has pushed prices down, but Shah believes "the market will rebalance itself going forward in 2026." The cost of production of shale oil in the US is $55-$58 per barrel and if oil prices are at $57-$58 per barrel, shale oil producers in the US won't pump more, he said. This would curtail the overall supply.

 

Shah said there's going to be a gradual upside in crude oil prices next year. " I don't know when this supply side shock will come, when the supply starts going down. But I am pretty confident that these are the levels where you build position, roll it over for 2-3 months and eventually six months. Down the line you will see oil--probably WTI at $65-$66 (per barrel) and Brent at $70 (per barrel)," Shah said. He expects 15-20% returns on crude oil next year.

 

When asked if India lowering its Russian oil imports can affect prices, Shah said it might as the country imports more than 2.0-2.5 million barrels of Russian oil. If India does not buy that oil, some other nation will but whoever buys it will also be targeted by US sanctions. "So, till the time the Russia and Ukraine crisis is getting solved or is getting moderated, I believe that this action will likely affect the overall India's import and even the Russian oil, they will eventually have no choice but to cut down their production and that can also lead to a spike in oil futures," he added.

 

PRECIOUS METALS

After the historic rally in gold, Shah is "cautiously optimistic" on the yellow metal in 2026 and does not expect returns to be on the same level as this year. Around 80-85% of the fundamentals, which should lead to another rally, are already priced in by the market.

 

Shah expects prices to fall more in the short term and when it tests $3,800-$3,850 per ounce it will again become attractive for investors. The upside for gold is capped at $4,300 per ounce in the near term. He recommends buying the precious metal at correction.

 

"...the upside in a near term future is not going to be significant, all the rallies will be sold," he said. "I would recommend don't expect this 50-55% return what we saw this year. Just be happy with the 10-12% return it provides you," he added.

 

The sharp rise in gold prices this year was mainly because of strong demand from exchange-traded funds and global central banks. Gold purchases by global central banks would be 800-850 tonnes in 2026, from 1,000-1,050 tonnes in each of the last three years, Shah said.

 

In the case of silver, though supply is weak, demand is increasing and new demand is also emerging from various sectors. Shah believes there won't be grand returns on silver either in 2026. Most of the positive news is already priced in by the market. If gold rises 10%, silver may rise 15%. "...don't expect big bang scenario for either of this gold or silver if you are getting 10 to 15% return in both of these commodities you should be happy for 2026," he said.

 

JEWELLERY

Even though gold jewellery demand in India is weak, the country's imports have surged. This is mainly because of investment demand for the metal, Shah said. Moreover, when domestic silver prices were trading at a premium last month in the spot market, jewellers started to import more gold anticipating a similar trend. However, Shah believes India's gold imports will gradually decline in the coming months.  End

 

US$1 = INR 89.22

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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