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Informist, Friday, Nov. 21, 2025

 

By Gopika Balasubramanium

 

MUMBAI – While the optimism that the Nifty 50 may hit its record level as early as next week continues and the sentiment remains positive, there could be some weakness in the market in the near term. Analysts said the negative sentiment in the global market will continue to have some impact in domestic stock market; however, in long term, the growth story remains intact. The rupee hitting a record low soured the sentiment, however, analysts had said that the currency will bottom out in the medium term, and appreciate from those levels.   

 

"Sentiment may remain challenging for bulls in the near term, as the decline could extend towards the 25920–25900 zone," Rupak De, technical analyst at LKP Securities, said in a note. "On the higher side, resistance is placed at 26166; a move above this level may improve sentiment," De added.

 

On Friday, the Nifty 50 ended at 26068.15 points, down 124 points or 0.5%. The 50-stock index rose to a high of 26179.20 points, just 98 points short of the lifetime of 26277.35 points touched last September. The BSE Sensex closed at 85231.92 points, down 400.76 points or 0.5%. 

 

Since peaking in September 2024, India's benchmark equity indices have largely consolidated amid stretched valuations, particularly in small- and mid-cap companies and continued outflows of funds from foreign investors, YES Securities said in India Strategy report. "However, sentiment began to improve from mid-October as trade concerns ease and expectations of a consumption rebound strengthen on the back of tax reforms," the broking firm said.

 

"With rising consumption and stronger corporate balance sheets, conditions are favourable for private investments to broaden beyond the early signs of recovery," YES Securities said. "...we project the Nifty 50 to climb to 28500–29000 points over the next 12 months, translating into 12-14% returns," the broking firm said. 

 

Recently, many global brokerages have put out their strategy reports for Indian equities for 2026 and argue that the domestic equities are poised for a potential upside. While Goldman Sachs forecast the Nifty 50 to hit 29000 points at the end of 2026, Emkay Global maintained its target for Nifty 50 at 28000 points by September end. As for BSE Sensex, Morgan Stanley expects the index to hit 95000 points in its base case scenario. HSBC Global expects the 30-stock index to climb to 94000 points by 2026-end. 

 

In 2025, domestic equities underformed with modest gains in what has been one of the strongest years for emerging markets. This significant underperformance was mainly on the back of peak starting valuations and cyclical growth and profit slowdown expectations. As the year progressed and earnings cuts materialised, tariff headwinds further bittered investor sentiment, leading to a sell-off by foreign investors. In addition, elevated crude oil prices during the better part of the year also soured sentiment. This year, the rupee had hit a record low of 88.81 a dollar in October, affecting the overseas investors investment decisions. 

 

Most of these brokerages highlighted that India's macroeconomic scenario is favourable for medium and long term growth cycle. These brokerages reiterated that Indian corporates will see a rebound in earnings growth especially after the policy measures, lower goods and services tax, ample liquidity in the banking system, frontloading of interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India alongside a sharp reduction in cash reserve. A lower risk weights on banks' lending to non-banking financial companies and cut in personal tax will also contribute overall growth. End     

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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