More Stories

Informist, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025

MUMBAI – The negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole remains active, with the latest index value reaching (-)1.57 degrees Celsius for the week ended Sunday, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report. This negative phase is likely to weaken during November, with a return to neutral in December, the bureau said. This is consistent with most international climate models the bureau has assessed, it said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius for at least eight weeks as typical of a positive index and values below (−)0.4 degrees Celsius for the same duration as typical of a negative index.

Though the El Nino Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure and cloud patterns over the equatorial central Pacific show some signs of La Nina development, the bureau said. The bureau's model currently predicts that tropic Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain at the La Nina threshold till at least January.

As of Sunday, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index has strengthened to 12.4, while the 90-day Southern Oscillation is 7.1. Sustained 90-day Southern Oscillation values above 7.0 are indicative of a La Nina event. Trade winds and cloud patterns have been indicative of La Nina since at least mid-to-late September, the bureau said.

As of Saturday, the Madden–Julian Oscillation is in the western Pacific, the bureau said. Most climate models predict that the weather pattern is likely to stall in the next fortnight, before potentially weakening, it said. This could enhance trade winds in the short term over the western and central Pacific, which may provide a temporary boost to La Nina conditions, the bureau said.

The Southern Oscillation Index tracks the atmospheric part of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, while the Oceanic Nino Index tracks the ocean part. The Southern Oscillation Index compares the difference from average air pressure in the western Pacific, measured in Darwin, Australia, to the difference from average pressure in the central Pacific, measured in Tahiti.

As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation stood at (−) 0.84 degrees Celsius. Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event, the bureau said.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. 

The India Meteorological Department has forecast normal to above normal rainfall in most parts of India in November. Weak La Nina conditions are prevailing at present over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the Indian weather department said. It has forecast La Nina conditions to persist through December to February and then transition to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions in Jan-Mar.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.