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Informist, Friday, Nov. 14, 2025                                      Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

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Equity Alert: Bihar poll trends to set direction for mkt, volatility likely

 

MUMBAI--0836 IST--Domestic equity indices are expected to take cues from the trends of vote counting for the Bihar assembly elections Friday, analysts said, adding that the probability of volatility is substantially high. Vote counting in the eastern state started from 0800 IST. Nearly all exit polls have forecast the incumbent National Democratic Alliance government to return to power again in the state. Some analysts said the Bihar election results are critical in terms of assurance of stability and continuity in central government policies, not as a standalone event. While some analysts expect the market to react negatively to an unexpected setback for the NDA, others see investors shrugging off such an occurrence.

 

Some analysts expect the Nifty 50 to test 25500-25300 points in case there is a negative surprise from the voting count in Bihar. "We will see an immediate short-term negative reaction that might push it towards 25300 levels in case there is a negative surprise," Vipin Kumar, assistant vice-president of derivatives and technical at Globe Capital Market, said. He expects the 50-stock index to face immediate resistance at 26030-26100 points and find support at around 25780-25720 points. At 0834 IST, the November contract of the GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,883 points, compared to the Nifty 50's previous close of 25,879.15 points.

 

On Thursday, the indices were volatile throughout the session and closed flat after choppy trade towards close. Currently, the index is around 400 points away from its record high. The BSE Sensex closed at 84478.67 points Thursday, up 12.16 points.

 

On the global front, there is negativity across equity markets as investors tracked overnight losses in the US. A fall in technology stocks and lower expectations of an interest rate cut in December by US Federal Reserve officials weighed on indices. Asian markets were sharply lower in early trade, with indices in South Korea and Japan being the worst hit.  (Gopika Balasubramanium)

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Equity Alert: Equity indices in Asia fall; Japan, South Korea mkts worst hit

 

MUMBAI--0810 IST--Equity indices in Asia were sharply down in early trade Friday, tracking overnight losses on Wall Street. The stock markets in Japan and South Korea were the worst hit as shares of technologycompanies, particularly of artificial intelligence-related companies, tumbled in these markets. The sharp losses also follow comments by some US Federal Reserve officials, which dampened expectations of a rate cut by the apex bank in December. 

 

South Korea's Kospi was the worst hit equity index in the region, down over 2%. Index heavyweight Samsung Electronics traded almost 4% lower and SK Hynix, a memory chip manufacturer, fell 5%.

 

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 index fell 1.6% and the broader Topix was almost 1% lower. Technology stocks led the fall in these indices and shares of technology conglomerate Rakuten Group slipped over 8%. Shares of semiconductor testing equipment maker Advantest were nearly 5% lower and those of its peer Lasertec fell nearly 4%. Shares of technology investor SoftBank were down nearly 6%, falling for the third consecutive session after the company Tuesday said it had sold its entire stake in US IT giant Nvidia.

 

China's CSI 300 index was 0.7% lower. Traders await the country's retail sales and industrial output data for October. The nation's economy grew 4.8% on year in the September quarter, the slowest in a year but in line with analysts' expectations. However, fixed-asset investment, which includes real estate, unexpectedly shrunk 0.5% in the first nine months of the year. A Reuters poll had forecast 0.1% growth. The drop in fixed-asset investment is "rare and alarming," Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, was cited as saying by CNBC. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell almost 1%.

 

Multiple US Fed officials Thursday cautioned about further rate cuts, citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labour market. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a near 51% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the policy meeting in December, down from the 67% chance of an interest rate cut a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

 

Following were the levels of key Asian indices at 0810 IST:

 

Index	Level	Change in %
CSI 300 Index	4674.12	(-)0.59
Hang Seng Index	26831.88	(-)0.89
Nikkei 225 Day	50471.30	(-)1.58
TOPIX FIRST SECTION	3353.85	(-)0.82
KOSPI	4067.41	(-)2.47
FTSE Singapore Strait Times	4558.08	(-)0.39
S&P/ASX 200 Index	8640.20	(-)1.29

 

(Eshitva Prakash)

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Equity Alert: US mkt tanks Thu on losses in IT cos, fading hopes of rate cut

 

MUMBAI--0746 IST--Equity indices in the US ended sharply lower Thursday as market participants sold shares of technology companies amid concerns about overvaluation following the recent surge due to optimism about artificial intelligence. Uncertainty about the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy going forward also contributed to the slump on Wall Street.  

 

The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the decline as shares of index heavyweight Nvidia dropped nearly 4%. Shares of Tesla fell around 7% and those of Broadcom declined over 4%. "There's a lot of uncertainties about the state of the economy...What we're going through is a little bit of a correction in the market in the AI sector and we're seeing market rotation," Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, was quoted by Reuters as saying.

Recent remarks by several US Federal Reserve policymakers point to uncertainty about whether the apex bank will cut its benchmark interest rate further at the next policy meeting in early December. US Fed officials have flagged concerns about inflation and pointed towards signs of relative stability in the labour market as an indication to stop easing the policy. "Given my baseline outlook, it will likely be appropriate to keep policy rates at the current level for some time to balance the inflation and employment risks in this highly uncertain environment," Boston Fed President Susan Collins was quoted by CNBC as saying. "I see several reasons to have a relatively high bar for additional easing in the near term," she said.

 

Traders now see the chances of an interest rate cut as a coin flip, with the CME Fedwatch tool showing a near 51% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut by the US Fed in December, down from the 70% expectation a week ago and from a near-unanimous bet in favour of an interest rate cut a month ago.

 

Among other stocks, Walt Disney fell nearly 8?ter the media giant said it was preparing for a legal dispute with YouTube TV over distribution of its cable channels. Shares of memory device maker Western Digital fell over 5% and those of SanDisk fell almost 14%.

 

Following are the closing levels of US indices Thursday:

 

Index	Level	Change in %
S&P 500	6737.49	(-)1.66
NASDAQ Composite	22870.36	(-)2.29
Dow Jones Industrial Average	47457.22	(-)1.65

 

(Eshitva Prakash)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 88.67

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Nishant Maher

 

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