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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025

 

MUMBAI – The International Energy Agency has once again raised its forecast for growth in global oil supply for both 2025 and 2026, marking the fourth consecutive month of upward revision, due to rapid increase in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

 

The Paris-based inter-governmental organisation expects global oil supply to rise by 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to an annual average of 106.3 million barrels per day, the agency said in its oil market report for November. This is higher than its previous forecast of growth of 3 million barrels per day this year. In 2026, the agency expects global oil supply to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day to 108.7 million barrels per day, also higher than growth of 2.4 million barrels per day projected last month.

In a shift from the recent past, this year's increase is almost evenly divided between non-OPEC and OPEC and its allies. "Global oil market balances are looking increasingly lopsided, as world oil supply is forging ahead while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards," the agency said. At the same time, the risks to the forecast remain plentiful, with the economic repercussions of the recent tariff turmoil and the impacts of new sanctions on Russia yet to become clear, it added.

 

Saudi Arabia boosted supply by close to 1.5 million barrels per day from January through October, in line with its higher quota. By contrast, Russian production is up by only 120,000 barrels per day over the same period. "Russia's oil industry has come under more severe pressure after the US and UK sanctioned the two largest Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, which together produce and internationally market about half of the country's crude," the agency said.

 

Global oil demand growth rebounded to 920,000 barrels per day in Jul-Sept mainly due to strong deliveries in China. The rise in demand during the quarter was more than double from the previous quarter, "as the macroeconomic picture broadly improved on easing trade tensions," it said. Global observed oil inventories rose by 77.7 million barrels in September to the highest level since July 2021. In the first nine months of the year, observable oil inventories have risen by 313 million barrels, it said.

 

At 1735 IST, the price of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was 0.7% higher at $63.13 per barrel and that of WTI crude on NYMEX was at $58.88 per barrel, down 0.7%.  End

 

US$1 = INR 88.66

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Nishant Maher

 

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