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Informist, Wednesday, Nov. 12, 2025

 

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--India Oct CPI inflation 0.25% 
--India Oct CPI inflation 0.25% vs 1.44% Sept 
--Informist poll estimated India Oct CPI inflation at 0.3% 
--India Oct CPI food inflation -5.02% vs -2.33% Sept 
--India CPI inflation falls to record low of 0.25% in Oct 
--India Oct CPI rural inflation -0.25% vs 1.07% Sept 
--India Oct CPI urban inflation 0.88% vs 1.83% Sept 
--India Oct CPI general index up 0.2% on month 
--India Oct CPI food price index down 0.3% on month 
--India Oct CPI cereals and products index down 0.2% on month 
--India Oct CPI vegetable index down 0.3% on month 
--India Oct CPI pulses and products index down 0.7% on month 
--India Oct CPI oils and fats index down 0.4% on month 
--India Oct CPI food, beverage index down 0.2% on month 
--India Oct CPI housing index up 0.9% on month 
--India Oct CPI clothing, footwear index down 0.2% on month 
--India Oct CPI fuel and light index down 0.1% on month 
--India Oct CPI miscellaneous index up 0.8% on month 
--India Oct CPI core inflation 4.4% vs 4.3% Sept 
--India CPI food inflation falls to record low of -5.02% in Oct 

 

NEW DELHI - India's headline CPI inflation fell a record low of 0.25% in October thanks to a statistical effect of a high base and a fall in food prices, data released by the statistics ministry Wednesday showed. Food inflation fell to (-)5.02% in October, the lowest in the current CPI series, which has data since 2014.

 

At 0.25%, CPI inflation in October was broadly in line with the consensus estimate. According to an Informist poll, headline inflation was seen at 0.3% in October. CPI inflation was 6.21% in October 2024 and the September print was revised lower to 1.44% from the original estimate of 1.54%.

 

October is the ninth consecutive month of CPI inflation staying below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%. This is also the third time in four months when inflation has been below the lower end of the RBI's target range of 2-6%.

 

The record low inflation print will open up further space for the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee to lower interest rates in December. The panel, which has cut the repo rate by 100 basis points in 2025, is expected to cut the key rate by another 25 bps in December to 5.25%. 

 

The record-low October print was helped by a favourable base effect after the general index had risen 1.3% on month in October 2024. The base effect in October was such that had the general index remained unchanged from September, retail inflation would have been 0.2%.

 

The general index, however, rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, much lower than the average sequential rise of 0.8% seen in October in the last 12 years. This was because of lower food prices last month with food prices index down 0.3% on month from September. Food inflation fell further to (-)5.02% last month from (-)2.33% in September. 

 

Core inflation--or inflation excluding food and fuel items--rose in October to 4.4%, the joint-highest in over two years. Notably, the September core inflation print was revised lower to 4.3% from 4.5% originally. "The continued surge in gold price inflation, which feeds into the miscellaneous goods and services category, appears to have more than offset the impact of the GST (goods and services tax) cuts," Shivaan Tandon, Asia economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. 

 

Bank of Baroda Chief Economist Madan Sabnavis said the impact of GST cuts announced on Sept. 22 was not fully visible in the October core inflation. "By November the impact on core inflation should be more visible," Sabnavis said in a note. 

 

The favourable base effect, which has been one of the key reasons for CPI inflation falling in FY26, will now fade away. As such, headline CPI inflation is seen rising with rating agency ICRA expecting the November print above 1.0%. Inflation is seen gradually rising to 4% by the June quarter, economists said.

 

The following table details sequential and annual changes in the main components of the CPI (Combined):

 

	Weight	Index for October	Month-on-month change (in %)	Year-on-year change (in %)
				October	September
Cereals and products	9.67	197.4	(-)0.2%	0.92%	2.06%
Meat and fish	3.61	228.6	0.2%	1.74%	2.15%
Egg	0.43	198.6	0.6%	1.33%	2.76%
Milk and products	6.61	191.7	0.0%	2.35%	2.51%
Oils and fats	3.56	196.0	(-)0.4%	11.17%	18.34%
Vegetables	6.04	211.5	(-)0.3%	(-)27.57%	(-)21.42%
Pulses and products	2.38	181.7	(-)0.7%	(-)16.15%	(-)15.32%
Sugar and confectionery	1.36	137.2	0.3%	4.02%	3.95%
Spices	2.5	220.6	(-)0.2%	(-)3.29%	(-)3.07%
Food and beverages	45.86	201.6	(-)0.2%	(-)3.72%	(-)1.37%
Pan, tobacco and intoxicants	2.38	215.0	0.3%	2.87%	2.73%
Clothing and footwear	6.53	197.2	(-)0.2%	1.70%	2.28%
Housing	10.07	188.1	0.9%	2.96%	2.98%
Fuel and light	6.84	180.3	(-)0.1%	1.98%	1.98%
Miscellaneous	28.32	196.4	0.8%	5.71%	5.35%
General Index	100	197.3	0.2%	0.25%	1.44%
Consumer Food Price Index	39.06	200.5	(-)0.2%	(-)5.02%	(-)2.33%

 

End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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