India Ratings Report
Costly palm oil to lift soyoil imports 40% on yr in 2024-25
This story was originally published at 18:30 IST on 8 November 2025
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NEW DELHI – India's soyoil imports are set to rise by a steep 40% on year to 4.7 million-4.9 million tonnes in the current oil year 2024-25 ended October due to high crude palm oil prices, India Ratings & Research said in a report. Soyoil imports are likely to rise in the coming months with Argentina suspending export duty, it added.
In September alone, soyoil imports were 500,000 tonnes, the highest monthly shipment since July 2022. In the first 11 months of the 2024-25 oil year, soyoil imports were 4.4 million tonnes, significantly above 3.1 million tonnes in the corresponding period last year.
Meanwhile, palm oil imports are estimated to fall to around 8 million tonnes from 9 million tonnes last year. "Elevated crude palm oil prices drive a shift towards soybean," the report said. Palm oil prices, in terms of cost, insurance and freight for India averaged $1,164 per tonne in September, up 9% on year. Crude soyoil prices were $1,182 per tonne, narrowing the price gap to below $20 per tonne from $120-$140 per tonne earlier.
"Palm oil prices have historically been lower than the price of soft oils, namely soybean oil and sunflower oil, which is a key reason for its wide usage in the Horeca (Hotel, Restaurant, Catering) and institutional segment," the report said.
Palm oil prices have remained firm through most of the year amid tight supplies from Indonesia and Malaysia. "While CPO (crude palm oil) prices are likely to soften in 2026 with an increase in the output, the increase in biofuel blending in Indonesia might affect the demand-supply balance in the later part of 2H26, presenting an upside risk," the report said.
Indonesia's plan to raise biodiesel blending to 50% in 2026 from 40% could lift the country's consumption by around 5 million tonnes, reducing exports, the report said.
In addition, urban households and branded food manufacturers are increasingly shifting away from palm oil to soft and blended oils, driven by health concerns and marketing narratives, the Indian Vegetable oil Producers' Association said. These evolving consumer preferences are reshaping the composition of India's edible oil import mix, it added.
Meanwhile, soyoil prices are likely to face downward pressure after Argentina suspended export duty and reduced Chinese demand for US soybean. "Argentina suspended export taxes on soy, corn, wheat, and their by-products towards the end of September 2025. However, a resumption of Chinese imports after the reduction in tariffs by the US could support prices," the report said.
Sunflower oil, another major soft oil, is likely to remain expensive as production fell 10% on year to 20 million tonnes, mainly due to reduced output in Ukraine. Russia's production has only partially recovered, and the European Union's output remains largely flat, the report said.
India's sunflower oil imports fell 20% on year to 2.6 million tonnes in the first 11 months beginning November, and are likely to close at 2.8 million-2.9 million tonnes, the report said. In 2023-24, India imported 3.5 million tonnes of sunflower oil.
Despite shifts in India's edible oil mix, the country is estimated to import 15.5 million tonnes of edible oil, only a tad down from 16.0 million tonnes last year. The import dependence remains high around 55%. During Nov-Sep, edible oil imports were 14 million tonnes, down 4% on year, led by a sharp fall in palm oil imports due to elevated prices. End
US$1 = INR 88.66
Reported by Afra Abubacker
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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