More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – Although price hikes across categories are expected to boost Marico Ltd.'s top line for the September quarter, high input costs are seen weighing on its bottom line growth. The company's volume growth is likely to be flat due to grammage reductions. However, some analysts expect volumes to grow at an above-average rate.

Prices of the company's major raw material, copra, are currently at a moderate to high level, with a recent decline from record highs in August but still significantly higher than in previous years, analysts said. Copra prices corrected in August to INR 220 per kilogram from INR 260 per kg and stabilised in September. However, the prices were up over 118% on year in the September quarter. Rice bran oil and other vegetable oils are other key raw materials for the company.

Marico's consolidated net profit for the September quarter is expected to fall marginally on year and over 16% on quarter to INR 4.21 billion, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. This will mark a fall in the company's consolidated net profit for the first time after 11 quarters. The highest estimate for consolidated net profit is INR 4.58 billion from Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 4.02 billion from Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

The company is expected to report a nearly 29% on-year rise in consolidated revenue to INR 34.35 billion for the quarter, according to the average of estimates. This will be the highest year-on-year rise in the company's consolidated revenue in 17 quarters. However, sequentially, the rise in consolidated revenue will be just 5%. The highest estimate for consolidated revenue is INR 35.43 billion from Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 32.68 billion from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

Given the inflation in copra and vegetable oil prices, high brand-building and distribution spending, and costs related to trade disruption due to the cut in the goods and services tax, the FMCG giant's gross margin for the reporting quarter is expected to contract 465-729 basis points on year to 43.5-46.5%, according to four brokerages. Motilal Oswal Financial Services sees the company's operating margin falling 330 bps on year to 16.3% and Emkay Global sees it contracting 300 bps on year to 17%.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are projected to rise just over 4% on year but fall nearly 17% on quarter to INR 5.45 billion, according to an average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The EBIT margin is seen contracting 300–384 bps on year to 15.8-16.6%, primarily due to high raw material prices.

The company's Saffola edible oils segment is expected to post 18% year-on-year growth in the September quarter, largely driven by 14-16% price growth, analysts said. Price hikes for Saffola edible oil products are likely to drive the growth in this segment despite flat volume growth, according to analysts.

Despite a 3% decline in volume, the Parachute oil category's revenue is likely to rise 45–54%, helped by a 47–58% growth in realisation, according to brokerages. The low single-digit decline in volumes was due to unprecedented hyperinflationary input cost and pricing conditions, the company had said in its quarterly business update. The value-added hair oils portfolio is likely to grow 10-18% on year with 8% value growth and 3% volume growth. In its quarterly business update, the company had said this segment has delivered growth in high teens, reflecting a sustained recovery path.

Marico's international business is expected to deliver strong performance, with constant currency growth projected in the range of 20-23% on year, sharply higher than the 13% on-year growth in the year-ago quarter and 19% rise registered in the June quarter. The company had said that the growth in its international business touched the twenties in Jul-Sept, maintaining its robust momentum in constant currency terms. Bangladesh, West Asia, and North Africa businesses visibly outperformed, while other markets were steady in their course, the company had said. Emkay Global expects international business' operating profit margin at 24% for the quarter. 

The company will announce its results for the September quarter on Nov. 14. Thursday, shares of Marico closed 0.6% lower at INR 713.15 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock price is broadly unchanged since the company detailed its June quarter earnings. In the previous quarter, the company had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 5.04 billion, up nearly 9% on year. Its sales had risen 23% on year to INR 32.59 billion.

Of the 21 brokerage reports on the stock available with Informist, 18 have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock, two have a 'hold' or equivalent rating, and only one has a 'reduce' rating. The 'buy' recommendations have an average target price of INR 796, which implies an over 10% upside to the stock's last close.

The following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Marico from 13 brokerage houses in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:

End

Edited by Ashish Shirke

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2025. All rights reserved.