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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

 

By Arya S. Biju

MUMBAI - Debt-ridden telecommunications major Vodafone Idea Ltd.'s consolidated net loss is expected to widen sequentially in the September quarter due to the continued decline in its subscriber base. This will mark the 29th consecutive quarter of the company reporting a net loss. The company's top line for the quarter is expected to see a slight sequential uptick driven by higher average revenue per user, though this will be largely offset by the continued decline in subscriber base.

The company's consolidated net loss is expected to be INR 67.80 billion for the September quarter, according to the average of the estimates from six brokerages. This is higher than the net loss of INR 66.08 billion the company had reported in the previous quarter but lower than the loss of INR 71.76 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. Estimates for the net loss range from a low of INR 66.15 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. to a high of INR 70.77 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

The company's consolidated revenue for the quarter is expected to rise around 1% on quarter and nearly 2% on year to INR 111.32 billion, the average of estimates showed. The highest estimate of INR 112.50 billion for the company's top line is from Kotak Securities Ltd. and the lowest estimate of INR 110.72 billion is from Nuvama.

The company's average revenue per user for the reporting quarter is expected to rise 0.6-2.4% sequentially, estimates from four brokerages showed. During the June quarter, the company's blended average revenue per user improved slightly to INR 165, from INR 164 in the trailing quarter and INR 146 in the year-ago quarter. Its customer average revenue per user for the June quarter excluding machine-to-machine services grew 15% on year and over 1% on quarter to INR 177.

While JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. expects the company's average revenue per user to grow to INR 167 due to improved subscriber mix and one additional day in the quarter, Kotak expects it to increase to INR 169 per month due to tariff pass-through and one additional day in the quarter.

 

Vodafone Idea is expected to have lost around 1.41 million subscribers during Jul-Sept, data compiled from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India showed. During the June quarter, the company lost around 500,000 subscribers, taking its total customer base to 197.7 million, Vodafone Idea said in a post-earnings press release in August.

The company's consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation for the quarter are expected to rise around 1% on quarter and a little over 2% on year to INR 46.49 billion, according to the average of estimates from six brokerages. The highest estimate of INR 47.23 billion for the EBITDA is from Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. and the lowest estimate of INR 46.03 billion is from Motilal Oswal.

Most analysts, barring Motilal Oswal, expect the company's EBITDA to improve sequentially supported by growth in sales, though the rise in sales will be partially offset by higher expenses related to its fifth-generation network rollout. Motilal Oswal expects Vodafone Idea's reported EBITDA to remain broadly stable from the previous quarter and its pre Ind-AS EBITDA to decline around 2% on quarter.

While Nuvama expects the company's EBITDA margin to remain flat on quarter, Motilal Oswal expects it to contract around 30 basis points on quarter. "With the bulk of the tariff hike benefits in the base, seasonally higher energy costs and employee wage revisions, we expect EBITDA margins to remain broadly stable for Bharti (Bharti Airtel) and RJio (Reliance Jio), while Vi (Vodafone Idea) could see (around) 30bp QoQ decline due to full impact of the recent network rollouts," Motilal Oswal said in a note.

 

The company will announce its September quarter earnings on Monday. Investors will watch out for management commentary on progress of the company's fund raising for its fifth-generation network rollout. During the June quarter, the company expanded its 5G services to 13 telecom circles and said it plans to expand to key cities across all 17 circles by September.

Investors will monitor the management's comments and updates on the petition filed by the company seeking quashing of the Department of Telecommunications' additional adjusted gross revenue demand of INR 94.50 billion till FY19, according to analysts. Last week, the Supreme Court modified its earlier order dated Oct. 27 and allowed the government "to comprehensively reassess and reconcile all adjusted gross revenue dues" of the telecom company till FY17, including penalty and interests. Earlier, the top court had allowed the government to reconsider only the additional adjusted gross revenue demand for the period up to FY17.

 

On Thursday, shares of the company closed around over 1% lower at INR 9.27 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has risen around 44% since it announced its June quarter earnings on Aug. 18.

Of the seven research reports on the company available with Informist, only one has a 'buy' rating on the stock with a target price of INR 10 per share. Of the remaining six, four have a 'hold' or equivalent rating and two have a 'sell' or equivalent rating on the stock.

Following are the September quarter earnings estimates for Vodafone Idea from six brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net loss in INR million:
 

Brokerage	Net Sales	Net Loss	EBITDA
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.	110,925	66,147	46,033
ICICI Securities Ltd.	111,346	66,669	46,465
Kotak Securities Ltd.	112,501	66,687	46,582
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd.	111,151	68,235	46,609
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.	111,271	68,306	47,228
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	110,723	70,771	46,039
Average	111,319.50	67,802.50	46,492.67

 

End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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