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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

By Anand JC

MUMBAI - Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. is expected to report a year-on-year decline in its net profit and net sales for the September quarter, primarily due to a double-digit fall in crude oil prices, according to analysts. ONGC will likely report a better quarter-on-quarter performance, with oil prices improving marginally from the June quarter, the analysts said.

ONGC is projected to report a net profit of INR 93.86 billion for the September quarter, down nearly 22% on year but up about 17% on quarter, according to an average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The upstream oil company is expected to report a year-on-year decline in its net profit for the fourth consecutive quarter. Estimates for ONGC's bottom line range from a low of INR 78 billion by HDFC Securities to a high of INR 106 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management.

The state-run enterprise is primarily engaged in exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and some value-added products. It produces around 70% of India's crude oil and 84% of its natural gas. Crude oil production contributed nearly 45% to the company's turnover in 2024-25 while natural gas production contributed around 48%. ONGC sells a bulk of its domestic production to refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd.

The company's top line is expected to decline a little over 3% on year but grow just over 2% on quarter to INR 327.40 billion, according to the average of 10 estimates. Forecasts for revenue from operations range from a low of INR 312.81 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management to a high of INR 341 billion by HDFC Securities.

"We expect ONGC to record ~7% QoQ rise in revenue, owing to ~2% increase in average crude prices, ~2% rise in USD (vs the rupee) and higher oil production," HDFC Securities said in a note. While the average price of Brent crude oil did increase on quarter to $69.1 per barrel, it was down 13% on year, according to analysts.

ONGC had earned $74.3 per barrel from sale of oil in the year-ago quarter and $66.1 in the June quarter, according to Nomura Equity Research. The brokerage expects ONGC to register crude oil sales realisation at $67.3 per barrel for the September quarter.

Analysts expect ONGC to report a slight increase in realisations from the sale of natural gas for the reporting quarter. This is because the price of gas sold under the administered pricing mechanism averaged $6.75 million British thermal units in the September quarter, higher than $6.6 in the June quarter. Realisations from the sale of gas are also expected to improve because of higher sale of gas drilled from new wells, which are sold at a 20% premium over gas sold under administered pricing mechanism.

ONGC is estimated to report crude sales volume of 4.67 million tonnes, around 2% higher on year but flat on quarter, Kotak Securities said. The sales volume of natural gas is expected to increase nearly 2% on year and on quarter to 3.95 billion cubic metres, the brokerage said.

ONGC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be INR 183.35 billion for the September quarter, largely flat on year but down 2% on quarter, according to an average of 10 estimates. The projections for EBITDA range from a low of INR 169.04 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services and a high of INR 199 billion by Nomura. The upstream company's EBITDA could increase 6% on quarter to INR 199 billion because of higher sales volume, higher oil and gas realisations, and positive impact of 2% depreciation of the rupee against the USD, Nomura said.

ONGC will declare its September quarter results Monday. At 1520 IST, shares of the company traded 0.4% lower at INR 251.40 on the National Stock Exchange. Shares of ONGC have risen roughly 7% since the company reported its June quarter earnings on Aug. 13.

Of the 14 research reports on the company available with Informist, 11 have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock, with an average target price of INR 295. One brokerage has a 'hold' rating on the stock, with a target price of INR 275 and two have a 'sell' rating, with an average price target of INR 223.

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for ONGC from 10 brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR million:

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US$1 = INR 88.63

Edited by Subhojit Sarkar

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