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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – Weakness in the Jaguar Land Rover business due to a major cyberattack in September will likely weigh on the financials of undivided Tata Motors Ltd. for the reporting quarter, according to analysts. Tata Motors currently trades as Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. after the demerger of its commercial vehicles business. Estimates for Tata Motors pertain to the entire company, before the demerger of the passenger vehicles business.

 

Tata Motors' consolidated net profit is expected to fall for the fifth consecutive quarter, seen down 25% on year at INR 25.09 billion in Jul-Sept, according to the average of estimates from seven brokerages. ICICI Securities expects the Nexon-maker to report a consolidated loss of INR 1.13 billion in the September quarter. It is the only brokerage that expects the company to make a loss.

 

Among the brokerages expecting Tata Motors to report a profit, projections range from a low of INR 10.79 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services to a high of INR 44.02 billion by Kotak Securities. The company had reported a consolidated net profit of INR 33.43 billion in the year-ago quarter, down over 11% on year.

 

Tata Motors will likely report consolidated revenues of INR 951.52 billion for the latest quarter, translating into a fall of 6% on year, according to an average of eight estimates. Estimates for the carmaker's top line range from a low of INR 896.59 billion by ICICI Securities to a high of INR 1.05 trillion by Kotak Securities.

 

WOUNDED JAGUAR LAND ROVER

The Indian automotive giant typically earns just over 70% of its consolidated revenues from its UK-based subsidiary, Jaguar Land Rover. The luxury carmaker has faced a tough few years due to a shortage of semiconductors, geopolitical instability, a costly transition to electric powertrains, and weak demand amid increased competition from Chinese automakers.

 

In early September, Jaguar Land Rover was struck by a major cyberattack, which forced the company to completely halt its production for the entire month. Jaguar Land Rover sold 66,165 cars in the September quarter, down nearly 25% on year and on quarter, according to ICICI Securities.

 

Jaguar Land Rover's revenues are expected to be negatively affected by the production disruption. The top line of Tata Motors' UK arm will likely fall 2% on year and 4% on quarter to 6.33 million pound sterling, Kotak Securities said. However, ICICI Securities has forecast a much sharper 24% on-quarter fall in Jaguar Land Rover's revenue.

 

The company earned 74,167 pound sterling per car sold in the year-ago quarter and 75,659 pound sterling in the June quarter, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Both brokerages have projected a 0-2% on-year increase in Jaguar Land Rover's realisation. "We expect ASP (average selling price) to decline by 2% QoQ driven by inferior geographical and model mix partly offset by lower discounts," Kotak Securities said.

 

CV, PV BUSINESSES

Tata Motors derives 11% of its consolidated revenues from the passenger vehicle segment and 17% from the commercial vehicle segment. The company despatched 144,400 passenger vehicles to dealerships in the reporting quarter, up nearly 11% on year. Commercial vehicles' wholesale sales grew 13% on year to 97,200 units in Jul-Sept. Both these segments gained from a cut in the goods and services tax ahead of the festival season in the reporting quarter.

 

Revenues of its passenger vehicle business are expected to be INR 124.92 billion, up 6% from INR 117.85 billion in the year-ago quarter, ICICI Securities said. The firm expects Tata Motors' commercial vehicle operations to report revenues of INR 192.34 billion, up 11% from INR 173.28 billion in the year-ago quarter. 

 

Tata Motors' consolidated earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, or EBITDA, is expected to be INR 81.11 billion in Jul-Sept, down nearly 30% on year, according to an average of seven estimates. Projections for Tata Motors' consolidated EBITDA range from a low of INR 48.51 billion by ICICI Securities to a high of INR 108.00 billion by Kotak Securities.

 

Jaguar Land Rover's EBITDA margin for the September quarter is estimated to fall 110 basis points on year to 10.6% partly due to higher tariffs imposed by the US on imports of cars there and also due to depreciation of the pound sterling against the dollar, Kotak Securities said.

 

Tata Motors will detail its September quarter earnings on Nov. 14.

 

Of the 17 brokerage reports on Tata Motors available with Informist, eight have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 830, four have a 'hold' or equivalent rating with an average target price of INR 732, and five have a 'sell' rating with an average target price of INR 661. This data set is for the undivided Tata Motors business.

 

Following are the consolidated September quarter earnings estimates for Tata Motors from eight brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit and then net loss in INR million:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Kotak Securities Ltd	1,050,185	44,015	108,356
YES Securities (India) Ltd	951,022	32,476	88,187
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	991,348	27,866	86,564
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	925,667	22,929	77,577
Nomura Equity Research	959,140	21,215	85,339
HDFC Securities Ltd	934,217	16,357
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	904,021	10,786	73,226
AVERAGE		25,092
ICICI Securities Ltd	896,586	(-)1,131	48,511
AVERAGE	951,523	(-)1,131	81,109

End

 

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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