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Informist, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025

MUMBAI – The net profit growth of Hero MotoCorp Ltd. is expected to hit a five-quarter high in the September quarter, powered by a double-digit growth in despatches of its two-wheelers and a moderate growth in their average selling price, according to analysts. Despatches grew as the Karizma maker benefited from dealerships stocking up inventories ahead of festival season and also from a cut in the goods and services tax levied on automobiles.

Hero MotoCorp will likely report a bottom line of INR 14.29 billion for the September quarter, which implies a growth of nearly 19% on year, according to an average of 11 estimates. The lowest net profit estimate for the automaker is INR 13.58 billion by Axis Securities and the highest estimate is INR 17.54 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management. In the year-ago quarter, the company's net profit had grown 14% on year to INR 12.04 billion.

India's biggest two-wheeler maker Hero MotoCorp had a 30% share of the domestic internal combustion engine two-wheeler market in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar). It has six manufacturing plants in India and one each in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, with an annual production capacity of around 9.4 million two-wheelers.

Hero MotoCorp's September quarter net sales are projected to grow 14% on year to INR 119.27 billion, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The lowest estimate for Hero MotoCorp's reporting quarter revenue is INR 117.28 billion by Nomura Equity Research and YES Securities and the highest is INR 120.55 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services.

The company's revenue could get a boost because of higher sales of vehicles with an engine capacity above 110 cubic centimetres, which are typically premium variants. "The growth is underpinned by resilient domestic demand, higher export contribution, and favourable pricing versus last year," Nirmal Bang Equities said in a note.

Hero MotoCorp is likely to record its strongest top line growth for any September quarter in FY26 since the September quarter of FY21, when its revenue had grown 24% on year to INR 93.67 billion.

"HMCL (Hero MotoCorp) has made a smart comeback in 2Q (Jul-Sept), posting 11% YoY volume growth and strong 24% QoQ growth. Its EV mix has increased to 2.3% of total volumes from 1.1% YoY," Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said. Hero MotoCorp sold 1.69 million two-wheelers in the reporting quarter, up 11% from 1.52 million it had sold in the year-ago quarter and up 23% from 1.37 million in the June quarter. The sequential surge in the sales of the company's two-wheelers points to higher channel inventory stocking ahead of the festival season.

Hero MotoCorp's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the September quarter are expected to rise a shade over 14% on year to INR 17.31 billion, according to an average of 10 estimates. The lowest estimate for Hero MotoCorp's EBITDA is INR 13.97 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management and the highest is INR 18.03 billion by Motilal Oswal.

Hero MotoCorp had reported an EBITDA margin of 14.5% in the year-ago quarter and of 14.4% in the June quarter. The company's EBITDA margin could grow 52 basis points on year to 15% due to improved operating leverage, higher exports, and cost control measures, Axis Securities said.

"Margin expected to slightly increase due to lower other expenses due to higher volume scale and capacity utilisation," Prabhudas Lilladher said. Investors will track the company's commentary on the outlook for demand and launch timelines.

At 1231 IST, shares of the Splendor maker traded 0.1% lower on the National Stock Exchange at INR 8,739. Since reporting its June quarter earnings on Aug. 6, its shares have risen a shade over 6%. Hero MotoCorp will disclose its September quarter earnings on Nov. 13.

Of the 21 research recommendations on the stock available with Informist, 18 have a "buy" rating while two have a "hold" rating and one has a "sell" rating. The average target price of the "buy" recommendations is INR 5,309.

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Hero MotoCorp from 11 brokerages in descending order of the net profit estimates, in INR million:

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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