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Informist, Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2025

By Simran Rede

MUMBAI – NCC Ltd.'s earnings are expected to improve in the September quarter on the back of strong execution and a low base in the year-ago quarter. While the company's bottom line is likely to rise in the quarter after falling in the previous one, its top line is expected to rise after falling for three consecutive quarters.

The company's September quarter net profit is expected to grow nearly 16% on year but fall over 2% from the trailing quarter to INR 1.86 billion, according to the average of estimates from four brokerages. Analysts' projections for net profit range from a low of INR 1.72 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. to a high of INR 2.02 billion by IDBI Capital Markets Services Ltd.

While IDBI Capital expects the company to report a quarter-on-quarter improvement in its bottom line, HDFC Securities and JM Financial expect it to fall on quarter. On the other hand, Anand Rathi sees the profit steady on a sequential basis. IDBI Capital said the on-quarter growth in the company's net profit will be driven by execution ramp-up of large orders secured in the second half of 2024–25 (Apr-Mar) and early FY26, along with support from a low base.

The construction and engineering company is likely to report a nearly 3% on-year rise and over 4% sequential growth in its revenue at INR 45.71 billion, according to the average of estimates. The highest estimate for revenue is INR 46.90 billion from Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. and the lowest estimate is INR 43.30 billion from HDFC Securities Ltd.

The company's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation, are seen rising 2% on year and 4% on quarter to INR 4.10 billion, according to the average of three estimates. The highest estimate for EBITDA is INR 4.26 billion from IDBI Capital and the lowest estimate is INR 3.90 billion from HDFC Securities. The EBITDA growth is likely to be subdued as execution of recent order wins is yet to pick up, JM Financial said.

The company is likely to report robust year-to-date order inflows of INR 93 billion-INR 96 billion. NCC received orders aggregating to over INR 28.78 billion in September and INR 75.39 billion in October. IDBI Capital projects a strong bid pipeline of INR 2.5 trillion in the reporting quarter. It also believes the execution visibility is healthy. On the other hand, JM Financial expects the company's execution to be weak in the September quarter. However, the brokerage did not specify the reasons for the projection of weak execution. 

NCC's EBITDA margin is likely to be steady on year at 9.00–9.25%, according to two brokerages. Going ahead, IDBI Capital expects opportunities from the development of Amaravati, the new capital of Andhra Pradesh, to strengthen the growth outlook of the company. The company had received two infrastructure projects worth INR 7.88 billion from the Andhra Pradesh government for water supply packages for Amaravati.

NCC will announce its September quarter earnings on Thursday. Market participants will watch the management's commentary on the pace of new order inflows, strong execution, and full-year guidance for FY26. On Tuesday, shares of the company ended almost 4% lower at INR 205.72 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock has fallen more than 4% since the company announced its June quarter earnings on Aug. 5. For the June quarter, the company had reported an over 5% fall in its net profit at INR 1.90 billion and an over 7% decline in revenue at INR 43.78 billion.

Of the 13 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, nine have a 'buy' or equivalent rating with an average target price of INR 284. Three brokerages have a 'sell' or equivalent recommendation and one has a 'hold' recommendation on the stock.

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for NCC from four brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:

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Edited by Avishek Dutta

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