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Informist, Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

 

By Taniva Singha Roy

 

MUMBAI – Crude oil prices are likely to remain range-bound with a positive bias in November, as demand is expected to improve slightly due to the easing of trade tensions between the US and China. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to pause additional output increases in the first quarter of 2026 could also provide some support to prices in the near term, according to analysts.

 

As per the median of estimates from seven broking firms polled by Informist, the November crude oil contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is seen in the range of INR 4,940–INR 5,800 per barrel this month. The December contract of West Texas Intermediate crude on the New York Mercantile Exchange is expected to trade between $56.0 and $66.0 per barrel this month.

 

Market participants are hopeful that the agreement between the US and China to dial down trade tensions will help revive global growth and fuel demand. President Donald Trump reduced import tariffs on China to 47%, cutting the earlier rate by 10 percentage points. The US has also agreed to halt investigations into China's allegedly unfair trade dominance. "Gradually it will lead to increase in the demand and the economy will revive. So because of that, prices should increase," Deveya Gaglani, senior reserch analyst-commodities at Axis Securities, said.

 

Further, the decision of OPEC and its allies to end its supply increases in Jan-Mar may prevent prices from falling during November, said Ajay Kedia, founder and director of Kedia Capital Services Pvt. Ltd. However, the group has also agreed to raise output by a modest 137,000 barrels per day in December, which could lead to concerns of an oversupply next month, Kedia said.

 

The eight members of the group — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — had paused their earlier aggressive production hikes and raised output by 137,000 barrels in October. The hike marked the beginning of the unwinding of 1.65 million barrels per day of voluntary cuts, which were set to remain in place until the end of 2026. Before that, these nations had aggressively increased production, fully unwinding the 2.2-million-barrel-per-day voluntary production cut the group had announced in late 2023.

 

In terms of US sanctions on Russian crude oil, analysts do not see a major impact on prices, as Russia is still able to export crude through shadow vessels to various countries. "The sanctions don't seem to be very effective unless Trump takes a much tougher stance and enforces stricter measures on Russia. Only then might supply concerns arise; otherwise, I don't see any major impact for now," Gaglani said. 

 

"The sanctions on Russian oil are already priced in," said Manoj Jain, director and head of commodity research at Prithvi Finmart Pvt. Ltd. The US last month had announced sanctions targeting Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in an effort to pressure Moscow to negotiate a peace deal with Ukraine.

 

From a long-term perspective, analysts see crude oil prices under pressure due to oversupply concerns. The International Energy Agency expects global oil supply to rise by 3.0 million barrels per day to 106.1 million barrels per day in 2025, according to its Oil Market Report for October. This is higher than its previous forecast of a 2.7-million-barrel-per-day increase. For 2026, the agency expects global oil supply to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day, up from its earlier projection of 2.1 million barrels per day. Global oil demand is now expected to rise by around 700,000 barrels per day this year, down from the agency's previous forecast of 740,000 barrels per day.

 

Following are the details of the estimates of brokerages on crude oil prices for November:

 

Brokerage	MCX support (in INR)	MCX resistance (in INR)	NYMEX WTI support ($)	NYMEX WTI resistance ($)
Axis Securities	4,900	5,800	55	66
Kedia Advisory	4,940	5,780	58.2	64.6
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	5,000	5,600	60	65
Nirmal Bang	5,080	5,700	55	67
Prithvi Finmart	5,100	5,800	56	66
Reliance Securities	4,800	5,900	56	69
Ventura Securities	4,900	5,900	56	67
Median	4,940	5,800	56	66

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 88.78

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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