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Informist, Monday, Nov. 3, 2025

 

By Anand JC

 

MUMBAI – InterGlobe Aviation Ltd., which operates the low-cost airline IndiGo, will likely report a net loss for the September quarter, according to analysts. This would be the eighth time that the company has reported a loss for the September quarter.

 

The September quarter is the weakest in any given year for airlines, partly because of the monsoon season. InterGlobe Aviation is expected to report a net loss of INR 10.33 billion for the latest quarter, much wider than the loss of INR 9.89 billion in the year-ago quarter, according to an average of four estimates.

 

The projection of a loss of INR 17.28 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services is the highest and that of an INR 1.70 billion loss by Prabhudas Lilladher is the lowest. Nuvama Wealth Management expects InterGlobe Aviation to report a net profit of INR 3.24 billion. Among the five brokerages whose earnings estimates are available for the company, Nuvama is the only one that expects the company to report a profit.

 

The carrier company will likely report revenues of INR 183.36 billion for the September quarter, up 8% on year, based on expectations from five brokerages. The forecasts for InterGlobe Aviation's revenues range from a low of INR 176.46 billion by Kotak Securities to a high of INR 191.48 billion by Nuvama.

 

InterGlobe Aviation's management had guided for flat growth in the company's yields on a year-on-year basis for the September quarter. "On a year-over-year basis, what we are saying is we are going to be in line in terms of price to what it was last year," the management told analysts in a post-earnings conference call in July. "But having said that, we have experienced a significant softness in June. We have seen some improvement already happening in July, So, there is some bit of stabilization," the management said. The company expected some improvement in yields in August and September. This metric refers to the average revenue an airline earns per passenger, per kilometre flown. 

 

"We build in flat YoY yield with 50 bps negative impact of mix (international growing at 2X the pace of domestic volumes)," Kotak Securities said. The company had said in July that it wouldn't spend too much on capacity during the reporting quarter, given the seasonal weakness. "If you see historically, the Q2 quarter is the softest quarter in terms of travel related activities, at least on the domestic side. You do have travel on the international side. And that's where we continue to keep adding capacity," the company had said in the analyst call.

 

InterGlobe Aviation's average seat kilometre is expected to grow nearly 8% on year to INR 41 billion, in line with the company's guidance of a mid-to-high single digit growth on year, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said. Average seat kilometres measures an airline's flying capacity and helps carriers measure their capacity and efficiency.

 

IndiGo's passenger load factor is expected to be 83.2%, higher than 82.6% in the year-ago quarter, Prabhudas Lilladher said. Passenger load factor is the percentage of available seating capacity which is used on a flight. A lower passenger load factor may prompt the carrier to adjust the capacity or its pricing strategy while a higher load factor would indicate efficient capacity utilisation.

 

InterGlobe Aviation is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation, and rentals of INR 27.92 billion for the September quarter, up nearly 15% on year, according to an average of estimates from five brokerages.

 

Aviation companies incur costs on renting aircraft, warehouses, and engines, which are crucial for their operations. The budget carrier incurred expenses towards supplementary rentals and aircraft repair and maintenance totalling INR 35.63 billion for the June quarter, around 18% of overall expenses.

 

InterGlobe Aviation will detail its Jul-Sept earnings on Tuesday. Its shares have largely remained unchanged since it disclosed its June quarter earnings on Jul. 30. Monday, its shares closed 1.2% higher from the previous close at INR 5,695.50 on the National Stock Exchange.

 

Of the 10 research reports on the company available with Informist, seven have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock with an average target price of INR 5,993, while one has a 'hold' rating on the stock with a target price of INR 5,428 and two have a 'sell' rating with an average price target of INR 3,985.

 

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for InterGlobe Aviation from four brokerage firms in ascending order by the estimate of net loss and then profit, in INR million:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net loss	EBITDAR
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	181,879	(-)1,697	32,000
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	183,166	(-)6,610	25,845
Kotak Securities Ltd	176,456	(-)15,742	12,413
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	183,841	(-)17,277	33,691
Average	---	(-)10,332	---
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	191,477	3,238	35,661
Average	183,364	---	27,922

 

End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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