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Informist, Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

MUMBAI – Technical analysts expect the Nifty Auto index to be in a range in the near term. Investors will closely track the wholesale sales data for October from automobile companies, due Saturday. Focus will also be on the September quarter earnings and managements' comments on demand outlook in the coming months. So far, TVS Motor Co., Hyundai Motor India and Maruti Suzuki India have declared quarterly results. Next week, Mahindra & Mahindra, Escorts Kubota, Tube Investments of India and Bajaj Auto will announce their earnings. 

Friday, the Nifty Auto closed at 26809.85 points, down 0.1%. For this week, Tube Investments and Mahindra & Mahindra fell the most while Ashok Leyland and Uno Minda fell the most. The Nifty Auto is expected to move between 24941 points and 28995.80 points, Ashish Sherigar, technical analyst at NVS Brokerage, said. The sectoral index is likely remain in a range in the near-term, he added.

Following the GST cuts, demand has improved across tractors, passenger vehicles and two wheelers while it has remained stable for medium and heavy commercial vehicles. In the festival season, tractor demand was stronger than Nomura expected while two-wheeler sales, which grew in mid and high single digits has been below its expectations.

The festive Vahan data currently does not fully capture festive season demand as there is a lag in registrations, the broking firm said. Given the pent-up demand in September, the ideal way to analyse demand trends would be to look at the combined Aug-Nov retail data, it added. "So far, cumulative festive data from Ganesh Chaturthi till date show 5-6% volume growth for PV (passenger vehicles) and 2Ws(two wheelers)," Nomura said. 

In October, the broking firm expects wholesale sales for the passenger vehicle industry at 3% on year. However, wholesale dispatches are likely to be constrained by limited truck availability and a fewer production days due to festive holidays, it added. Thus, companies with higher dealer inventory might benefit in terms of retail market share.

Two-wheeler industry wholesales are expected to decline 6% on year. "Given the sharp GST cuts, we expected mid-teens growth in 2HFY26 (Oct-Mar), supported by the sharp GST (goods and services tax) cuts," Nomura said. However, the growth of two-wheeler wholesales during the festival season is seen in mid-to-high single digits, which indicates an improvement, but is still below Nomura's expectations. The deadline for mandatory anti-braking system implementation from January 2026 is unchanged so far and continues to be a key risk to monitor, Nomura said.

Medium and heavy commercial vehicle wholesale sales are likely to grow 2% on year in October, Nomura said. Demand in this segment has stayed broadly stable, supported by steady freight rates, the brokerage said. For tractors, Nomura expects wholesale sales to fall 6% in October due to the early festive season in September. "Improved rural liquidity, favourable monsoon season, and GST cuts have improved sentiment, which, in turn, has benefited (tractor) demand," the broking firm said.

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Following are the resistance and support levels for key automotive stocks for next week, as per calculations based on their prices on the National Stock Exchange:

End

Reported by Gopika Balasubramanium

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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