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Informist, Friday, Oct. 31, 2025

 

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--IMD: India October rainfall 48.8?ove normal at 112.2 mm 
--CONTEXT: IMD details outlook for temperature, rains in November 
--IMD: Oct rainfall in south peninsula 39.8?ove normal at 212.8 mm 
--IMD: Oct rainfall in east, northeast 7.2?ove normal at 132 mm 
--IMD: Oct rainfall in central India 66.6?ove normal at 95 mm 
--IMD: Oct rainfall in northwest India 160.7?ove normal at 56.3 mm 
--IMD: Oct northeast monsoon in core zone 3rd highest since 2001 at 245.7 mm 
--IMD: Normal to above normal rainfall seen in most parts of India in Nov 
--IMD: See rain in south peninsula 77-123% of long period average in Nov 
--IMD: Weak La Nina conditions prevailing at present 
--IMD: See La Nina persist through Dec to Feb 
--IMD: Conditions don't favour El-Nino at present 
--IMD: See negative Indian Ocean Dipole weakening in coming months 

 

MUMBAI – The India Meteorological Department has forecast normal to above normal rainfall in most parts of India in November. Some parts of northwest and south peninsular India, however, are likely to receive below normal rainfall during the same time, the weather bureau said in its monthly rainfall and temperature forecast for November. 

 

In the south peninsular India consisting of five meteorological subdivisions, rainfall is seen to be 77-123% of long period average in November. The long period average of rainfall over south peninsular India during November, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 118.7 millimeters, according to the department. The long period average is the average rainfall for a specific region over a long period, such as 30 or 50 years, which serves as a benchmark for forecasting and assessing the current year's rainfall.

 

Weak La Nina conditions are prevailing at present over the equatorial pacific ocean, the weather department said. It has forecast La Nina conditions to persist through December to February and then transition to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation in Jan-Mar. The department has also forecast negative Indian Ocean dipole weakening in coming months.  

 

In terms of temperature, the weather agency has forecast below normal maximum temperatures in most parts of the country. However, above normal maximum temperatures are likely in most parts of northeast India, some parts of northwest and southern peninsular India and the foothills of the Himalayas, the department said. Above normal minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country except some areas of northwest India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are likely, it said.

 

Meanwhile, the weather department said that northeast monsoon in core zone of south peninsular India was third highest since 2001 at 245.7 mm in October. The core zone in south India comprises of five meteorological subdivisions, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikkal, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam, Rayalaseema, Kerala and Mahe, and South Interior Karnataka, it said. 

 

In October, the country as a whole received  48.8?ove normal at 112.2 mm, the department said. South peninsular India received 39.8?ove normal at 212.8 mm and  east, northeast India received 7.2?ove normal at 132 mm in October. Similarly, rainfall was 66.6?ove normal at 95 mm in central India and it was 160.7?ove normal at 56.3 mm in northwest India, according to the department. 

 

Typically, the monsoon withdraws from the entire country around Oct. 15, but this time it was delayed by a day to Oct 16. At the same time, conditions became favourable for the onset of northeast monsoon over the south-east peninsular region of India. Easterly and northeasterly winds set in over southern peninsular India and south and the adjoining central Bay of Bengal during the same week causing heavy to very heavy rainfall over parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and some parts of Karnataka during the week. The onset of northeast monsoon was declared the same day the southwest monsoon withdrew.  End

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy and Shreya Shetty

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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