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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025

By Anand JC

MUMBAI – Maruti Suzuki India Ltd.'s top-line growth is likely to be limited to mid-single digit for the September quarter due to weak despatches of its cars in India, according to analysts. Nevertheless, the WagonR-maker's bottom-line growth is expected to be the best in the last five quarters, driven by a low base created by higher deferred tax accounted for by the company in the year-ago quarter.

Maruti Suzuki is projected to report a net profit of INR 36.03 billion for the reporting quarter, up  17% on year, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. Analysts' projections of the company's net profit range from INR 32.66 billion by HDFC Securities to INR 38.52 billion by ICICI Securities.  

In the year-ago quarter, the carmaker's profit had fallen 18% on year to INR 30.70 billion as the company had to make a one-time provision of INR 10.15 billion for deferred tax following the withdrawal of the indexation benefit for calculating capital gains tax and the raising of long-term capital gains tax on debt mutual funds. If this one-time cost is added back to the company's profit in the year-ago quarter, Maruti Suzuki's projected September-quarter net profit will be down 12% year on year.

Maruti Suzuki's revenue is expected to grow by almost 6% on year to INR 394.11 billion, according to the average estimates. The revenue forecasts range from INR 373.38 billion by HDFC Securities to INR 408.90 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher.

"Revenue shall grow in high single digits supported by volume growth, lower share of small cars and better pricing YoY (year-on-year)," Nuvama Institutional Equities said. Maruti Suzuki sold 550,874 cars to dealerships in the September quarter, up 2% on year and a shade over 4% on quarter. The company increased its overall despatches during the latest quarter in anticipation of increased demand due to the cut in goods and services tax, of which Maruti Suzuki is expected to be the biggest beneficiary in the passenger vehicle space, and the festival season. Maruti Suzuki offered additional discounts on top of the GST cut-led price reduction to boost sales, which did work, but the company could benefit from this only for a week as the GST cut took effect only on Sept. 22. Further, a logistical snag also prevented Maruti Suzuki from fully capitalising on this surge in demand in the last week of September.

Maruti Suzuki is India's largest passenger vehicle company, with a dominant position in the small car segment. However, as Indians' preference for bigger cars has increased, the company has lost some of its market share to peers over the last five years. The Fronx-maker has a market share of around 41%, according to passenger vehicle registration data for September. While this is a far cry from the 60%-odd market share the company had a decade ago, it has plans to claw back its losses over the next five years.

Maruti Suzuki has been flexing its dominance overseas, even as demand for cars in India recovers at a snail's pace. The company exported over 20% of the cars it manufactured in India in the September quarter, compared to around 14% in the year-ago quarter. This increased share of exports is expected to boost the company's realisations for the quarter, analysts said.

The average selling price of Maruti Suzuki cars was INR 686,969 in the September quarter last year, which rose to INR 727,722 in the June quarter, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Analysts expect this to improve by 4-5% on year in the reporting quarter.

Maruti Suzuki is expected to report earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation of INR 42.54 billion for the latest quarter, down 3.6% on year, according to the average of estimates from 11 brokerages. The projections for Maruti Suzuki's EBITDA range from INR 39.99 billion by Motilal Oswal to INR 45.39 billion by Prabhudas Lilladher.

The company had reported an EBITDA margin of 11.9% in the year-ago quarter. Analysts expect the company's September quarter EBITDA margin to contract due to higher advertising spend, higher launch-related expenses for its mid-sized sport utility vehicle, Victoris, and a sharp spike in metal prices.

Maruti Suzuki will declare its September quarter earnings on Friday. Its shares have climbed nearly 29% since the company disclosed its June quarter earnings. Wednesday, shares of the company ended at INR 16,138 on the National Stock Exchange, down 1.1% from the previous close. 

Of the 15 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 11 have a 'buy' call with an average target price of INR 15,954, and four have a 'hold' recommendation with an average target price of INR 16,045.

Following are the September quarter earnings estimates for Maruti Suzuki from 13 broking firms in descending order of the estimate of net profit:

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Edited by Saji George Titus

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