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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025

By Akash Mandal

MUMBAI – Cummins India Ltd.'s top line and bottom line are likely to rise 15-20% on year in the September quarter due to higher realisation from its Central Pollution Control Board 4+ compliant generator sets and broad-based growth across segments. Margins are expected to expand on year but are seen falling sequentially amid strong competition in the sector. 

The company, which is a subsidiary of US-based Cummins Inc., is expected to report a net profit of INR 5.45 billion in the September quarter, an average of estimates from 10 brokerages showed. This implies a 21% growth on year but a slight fall from the INR 5.45 billion net profit reported in the trailing quarter. The highest estimate for the company's September quarter net profit was INR 5.84 billion by IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd. and the lowest was INR 5.13 billion by Nomura Equity Research. 

The diesel and natural gas engine maker's revenue is likely to rise 15% on year but fall 1% sequentially to INR 28.72 billion in the reporting quarter, an average of estimates from 10 brokerages showed. IDBI Capital has the highest revenue estimate at INR 29.64 billion, while Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd. has the lowest estimate at INR 27.91 billion. 

Many brokerages expect the company's top line growth to be driven by broad-based growth across segments. "(Cummins) has seen a recovery in volumes, supported by broad-based demand across quick commerce, hospitals, roads, airports, pharma, and manufacturing, alongside a stabilisation in product pricing," Nuvama said in a report. "While domestic momentum remains healthy, we remain conservative on exports given ongoing geopolitical uncertainties," the brokerage said. However, some brokerages such as Prabhudas Lilladher and Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. expect exports to also drive growth.

The Pune-headquartered capital goods major's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are likely to come in at INR 5.92 billion, an average of estimates from nine brokerages showed. The company had reported an EBITDA of INR 6.24 billion in the trailing quarter and of INR 4.81 billion in the same quarter a year ago. The company's EBITDA margin is likely to be in the range of 20-21% in the reporting quarter, higher than the 19.3% reported in the corresponding quarter but lower than the 21.4% reported in the trailing quarter. 

"We expect EBITDA margin to be 140 bps lower YoY as we build in the effects of competition intensity weak growth in powergen," Kotak Securities Ltd. said in a report. "Dealer checks suggest the partial reversal of LHP (low horsepower motors) price cuts, hinting at margin stabilisation ahead," it added. Nomura expects the margins to sustain above 20% due to favourable raw material prices and cost-reduction measures.

Brokerages said outlook for demand for the domestic sub-segments and exports market and the pricing environment in the powergen segment as key monitorables. Demand for higher-priced CPCB 4 products also needs monitoring as the onset of a price war could still pose risks, Nuvama said.

Cummins India will report its quarterly numbers on Nov. 6. Of the 13 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 10 have a 'buy' or equivalent rating on the stock for an average target price of INR 4,234 while three have a 'hold' or equivalent recommendation. At 1109 IST, shares of the company traded 0.7% higher at INR 4,316.30 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is currently up over 17% from the June quarter earnings announcement date of Aug. 7. In the June quarter, the company had reported a net profit of INR 5.89 billion, up 40% on year on revenues of INR 29.07 billion, up 26% on year. 

The following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Cummins from 10 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR million:

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Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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