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Informist, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2025

 

By Anand JC

 

NEW DELHI – Bajaj Auto Ltd. is expected to report a four-quarter high revenue growth and a six-quarter high profit growth due to strong sales, especially overseas, according to analysts. Higher operating leverage and lower sales of its electric Chetak scooter are likely to boost the automotive giant's operating margin.

 

The Pune-based two-wheeler maker is projected to report a net profit of INR 24.81 billion for the latest quarter, up 24% on year, according to the average of estimates from 13 brokerages. Earnings projections range from a low of INR 22.45 billion by Nirmal Bang Equities to a high of INR 26.97 billion by Nomura Equity Research.

 

Bajaj Auto's revenue is expected to climb just over 12% on year to INR 147.20 billion for the reporting quarter, according to the average of 13 estimates. Forecasts for revenue range from INR 140.47 billion by Axis Securities to INR 150.56 billion by Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers.

 

Automakers cashed in on festival season demand and a cut in goods and services tax rates in the last week of September by trimming prices and offering additional discounts. Bajaj Auto sold 1.29 million automobile units in India and overseas in the latest quarter, up nearly 6% on year. Of these, sales in India fell to 740,793 units, down nearly 5% on year. In contrast, exports rose 24% on year to 553,327 units. Exports formed 43% of Bajaj Auto's sales in the September quarter, up from 36% a year ago, reflecting its growing focus on overseas markets.

 

Bajaj Auto, which rose to prominence with the Chetak and 'Hamara Bajaj' advertisements in the 1970s, is among India's top two-wheeler and three-wheeler manufacturers.

 

Increased sales of premium two-wheelers are likely to boost the company's top line. "We expect revenues to grow by ~14% YoY led by ~6% YoY increase in volumes and 8% YoY increase in ASP (average selling price) led by richer mix of 3W (three-wheelers) exports, premium bikes and better fx (foreign exchange) realisation," ICICI Securities said in a note.

 

Most analysts expect the company's realisations to grow 6-8% on year. Nirmal Bang, however, expects a more modest 3% increase. Bajaj Auto sold vehicles at an average of INR 107,470 in the previous September quarter, which increased to INR 113,247 in the June quarter, according to Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

 

Bajaj Auto's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation is estimated at INR 29.96 billion for the September quarter, up 13% on year, according to the average of 11 estimates. Estimates range from a high of INR 32.17 billion by Nomura to a low of INR 28.34 billion by Axis Securities.

 

Higher exports of three-wheelers and despatches of higher-priced motorcycles are likely to lift the company's EBITDA margin, according to analysts. The company had reported an EBITDA margin of 20.2% in the year-ago quarter, which moderated to 19.7% in the June quarter.

Better operating leverage, higher sales of three-wheelers and lower sales of Chetak, and the depreciation of the rupee could drive an on-quarter increase of 70 basis points in the EBITDA margin of Bajaj Auto, Kotak Securities said in a note. Production and despatches of the Chetak were impacted by a curb in exports of rare earth magnets – a key raw material for an electric vehicle – by China to India.

 

Of the 25 brokerage reports on the company available with Informist, 15 have a 'buy' recommendation with an average target price of INR 9,570. Seven recommend holding the stock with an average target price of INR 9,954, and three advise selling it with an average target price of INR 7,228. The Pulsar-maker will declare its September quarter results on Nov. 7.

 

On Tuesday, shares of Bajaj Auto closed at INR 9,057.50 on the National Stock Exchange, down 0.4% from the previous close. The company's shares have risen roughly 12% since it announced its June quarter results on Aug. 6.

 

Following are the Jul-Sept earnings estimates for Bajaj Auto in INR million, from 13 broking firms in descending order of net profit estimates:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Nomura Equity Research	149,071	26,971	32,171
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd	150,558	25,599	NA
ICICI Securities Ltd	149,487	25,470	30,695
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	149,487	25,355	30,605
Kotak Securities Ltd	148,015	25,228	30,262
YES Securities (India) Ltd	148,021	25,080	30,180
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	148,694	25,001	30,274
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	148,021	24,651	30,020
HDFC Securities Ltd	147,385	24,490	NA
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	145,090	24,488	29,163
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	146,728	24,148	29,351
Axis Securities Ltd	140,470	23,550	28,340
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	142,556	22,450	28,511
Average	147,199	24,806	29,961

 

End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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